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Introduction
I had decided to take a break from writing in March so I could focus on family, but recent events have dictated otherwise. Herewith is a short piece on the Crocus City Hall “event.” I think there is not much introduction needed about what happened at the venue. But for those who have been living in a cave for the past several days… An unknown number (4?) of gunmen (terrorists) assaulted the Crocus City Hall in Russia and killed, with small firearms and arson, between 100 and 200 civilians, including a lot of children.
How could this happen? Who is responsible? What are the implications? I will give my opinion about what happened, and let you draw your own conclusions. My description is a possible scenario, although reality might be different.
First, The West claims that ISIS did it. Did ISIS do it? Yes, I think ISIS did it. Does that mean that ISIS is the only one to blame? That the West and Ukraine have nothing to do with it? I think quite the opposite, and I will explain briefly but still in some detail. But first… Who is ISIS?
ISIS
Here, I will use my proven three-layered onion scheme, which I have previously used to explain the Wagner Forces and the Quds Forces.
But what does it mean? A former iteration of ISIS was Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and Al Qaeda was originally set up by the CIA to fight the Soviets (https://www.wilsoncenter.org). It was organized similarly to the aforementioned scheme. Nevertheless, the Western Oligarchy decided to sacrifice its mercenary force as an excuse to invade more territory of the Middle East and Central Asia. For that reason, the base of Al-Qaeda, the “Expendables” layer, was decimated and destroyed critically during the 00s. Its image was also severely damaged, and new recruits were reluctant to join. Something new was needed to attract scores of young men to fight for some fanatic Islamic goals. Hence, a caliphate, etc. The dissatisfaction of hundreds or thousands of Iraqi military officers played into the scheme.
It was easy for the aforementioned services to create ISIS in Iraq during its occupation with the sole reason of subjugating more and more territory in the Middle East, e.g., Syria and Lebanon. But their focus included countries all around the world as well, where you can plant a few ISIS guys and justify a decades-long occupation by American troops “to fight ISIS.” I’m being sarcastic here, but how incompetent would American soldiers be to need decades to kill a few shepherds with AKs?
However, ISIS is a mercenary organization, although the “Expendable” layer might disagree. I’m sure they believe in the caliphate bullshit or simply want to fight and rape women. The Command & Control Layer knows what is going on and is organizing its mercenaries according to the demands of the first Layer. For this, they enjoy a lot of rewards. The Supervision layer, being representatives of the aforementioned services, provides money, marketing, orders, logistics, weapons, and training.
So, if ISIS claims to have done XYZ, then it might be true, but the orders for ISIS to do XYZ came from one of the aforementioned services. ISIS isn’t doing anything of its own will. There is no ISIS brain bug sitting somewhere and planning things.
The problem, of course, is which service of the aforementioned four plotted which attack. And which one plotted the attack on Crocus? I have no idea, but I will offer some assumptions later.
Preparation
I’ve watched the available footage of the attack, and I came to the following conclusion: this was not a spontaneous action hastily organized by the GUR. I assume that the preparation time was approximately two to three months.
These guys entered the hall, stuck together, and followed a well-prepared path. They were always together and moved as practiced.
At least one of the perpetrators visited the hall before to walk the planned route so that no improvisation would be needed while the attack was taking place. It was well practiced so that the path worked even under heavy stress and the heavy use of drugs.
These people most likely had some combat experience before. Maybe with ISIS somewhere around the world. Maybe in Afghanistan or Iraq/Syria. But this was not enough to execute a plan where they would eventually try to escape.
So, the action in Crocus would have needed to be practiced with the whole team on a training ground with conditions similar to those in a big concert hall. They could practice moving together and shooting, all of this under the heavy influence of, most likely, Captagon. The point is, when the real action is taking place, everything needs to run on muscle memory. There would be no thinking, no improvisation, just automatic mode.
The question is, where was this training ground? I think this is the most important question and information that the FSB is now “toasting” out of these terrorists to find this training ground. Most likely, it is one of the Central Asian “Stans,” which will get some special attention from Russia when it finishes off Ukraine, parts of Moldova, and some other “eager” candidates.
These guys have been prepared by a foreign service, using most likely ISIS assets to train and prepare them in the aforementioned “stans.” So, there is no chance the FSB can extract who their handlers have been. Every service would be able to act through intermediaries exactly for this purpose. However, the FSB will find out where the training grounds are, and with all the logistics, communications, etc., it will be able to track down the ISIS assets further. And with them, they will know which foreign service handled these ISIS assets. And then it will get ugly.
I assume that there will be an epic bloodbath of which we will never hear across the “stans” and even some Middle Eastern countries as well. Some people will “collect evidence” everywhere with very special “interrogation methods.” Then, it will be established who the real handlers are.
I personally think that Ukraine, namely, the GUR, has either been involved or informed about what is going on. But who handled ISIS and who gave the orders?
I don’t think that only one or two services can control ISIS on its own. So, I think that some rogue elements of the CIA have been driving this. I don’t think that such a terror attack is official US policy, and I think that the official Washington is in panic because such a case is the last thing they want to happen. What was Nuland talking about in Kiev? Where is she now? Hmm…
However, President Putin mentioned a change in his policy towards Palestine. This indicates that Mossad could have been involved. It would have a motive. Remember the Wars of Liberation? Moreover, the sudden French terror alarm invoked soon after the attacks is strange as well. Had the French some dirt as well?
I don’t know. However, the main handler of ISIS here could have been MI6. It is the favorite weapon of the rogue elements of the USA and, thereby, the Western Oligarchs when it comes to attacking Russia without putting the USA at risk. If the UK goes down, who cares (from an American perspective)? No one would ever avenge it or go down for it.
Execution
The execution went exactly as I described in the preparation part.
But before they started, they consumed a heavy dose of Captagon to be able to randomly kill scores of civilians, especially children. To suppress all feelings, fear, and stress. When the first footage came out of the captured “fried balls” guy, one could see him shaking. It was not only because of fear but mainly because of the withdrawal from the drugs in combination with fear and the ever-growing stress.
The group walked down a prepared path to a place where they scouted the best possibility of starting a fire that would take down the hall as a distraction. These guys were far too inexperienced (dumb) to determine such a spot on their own. It is likely that some military engineers of a Western service identified the best possible spot to ignite a fire that would bring down the hall.
Then, they got rid of their weapons and fled the scene, as civilians, to their car. Of course, I’m not going to describe the atrocities against civilians here.
Extraction
When they reached their car, they drove straight down a prepared route to Bryansk and the Ukrainian border, where they would have been evacuated and granted a new life somewhere.
I’m sure that was the story they were told. In fact, the handlers surely didn’t expect that these people would survive. So, the whole extraction story was only a motivator for them to execute the plan and come away with their lives.
I’m sure if they had managed to reach the Ukrainian border, the Ukrainians would have killed them on the spot and made the bodies vanish forever to cut the trace.
However, these guys were heavily drugged, as already described. I think their mental and physical condition heavily deteriorated on their way down to Bryansk. One could only imagine what went through their sick minds during their journey.
The fact that they used a known car to flee speaks for the fact that their handlers wanted them to be caught or that they were so heavily drugged and stressed that they didn’t manage to change the car at a prepared spot. Perhaps they would have managed to flee the country with another car. Who knows?
The Hunt
The FSB executed some prepared plans for tracking/capturing fleeing terrorists and other criminals, which allowed them to use all available means to identify them and track them down as quickly as possible, without prior court decisions, etc.
However, the FSB had a clear distance profile of where they should be at the estimated time of the terrorists' arrival. So, I assume a search was taking place, dynamically developing and expanding along with the passage of time. Akhmat Special Forces were deployed along the most likely route, probably because it was known that these guys were Muslims, and Russia wanted to avoid pictures of Christian Russians torturing Muslims to avoid interethnic and interreligious trouble.
Why did they surrender instead of killing themselves or die fighting? Because of the drugs, of course. I think they were so done with everything after 12 hours with the heaviest high-tech drugs, with what they had done, and driving with all of this for 5-6 hours and thinking of it. And, of course, no sleep. I think they were no longer able to rationally think or decide anything. If they were fully conscious, I think they would rather have killed themselves before the arrest.
BTW: While the attack was still underway, I knew that the Russians would not kill them but capture them alive if possible. It would even be worth sacrificing soldiers for this purpose. Which luckily was not needed. With such an attack in place, it would be criminal to kill the best source of information.
Pain
What was the main reason for this attack? Using Muslim (Tajikistan) people to kill scores of Russians and then flee to Ukraine. The classic MI6 scheme (UK) has been used for centuries to sow discord between usually brotherly people. The Russians would now be expected to hate all immigrants from the Central Asian “Stans” and even more hatred against the Ukrainians, to finally start killing Ukrainian civilians.
An overreaction by the Russians was the goal. To start killing civilians and to provoke a more aggressive Russian offensive, which would claim thousands of Russians more than necessary.
I think Russia should react as it did after each prior provocation. Taking out some critical infrastructure objects (more than usual) and taking down scores of Ukrainian commanders and GUR/SBU agents. The public wants blood, and it should get their blood this way. Every other overreaction would play only into the MI6/CIA hands. Everything is going very well on the front lines, and this should not be jeopardized. The real perpetrators will be hunted down worldwide, as I described above, and they will die a horrible and painful death. But only when they are allowed to die, and this can take some time.
This involved a lot of ISIS leadership and, for sure, their Western intelligence handlers as well. This has been taboo until now. In this case, a few MI6/CIA people will bite the dust. Most likely, they will even be sacrificed (lambs?) by their own services to placate the Russians. This was clearly an operation AGAINST American interests and the policy of the State Department.
Which leads me to the United States.
For now, we have a lot of indicators that the United States is a rogue nation, no longer being led by The People. It is being led by some Oligarchs in the West and by their services. I’ve described this in detail in Economics and Empires 5.
For now, they managed to hide this fact with their puppet government and Congress, which is fully controlled. No one has even questioned the fact that the United States is being led by a half-living zombie masquerading as a President. I mean… neither the Americans nor the Europeans are questioning it. In fact, we Europeans are questioning it even to a lesser degree. What?
And now we are getting it smeared in our faces. People like Nuland, who was responsible for organizing this Ukraine disaster for her Oligarchs, openly announced some farewell gifts in Kiev for President Putin before she left office. The State Department for which she worked, knowing that something was in the making in connection with Ukraine and a terror attack in Moscow, was warning about it without knowing the details. Such stuff is being planned and conducted by the special services that are running the United States and canceled entirely the constitution and democracy.
The White House even hinted that the Ukrainian Services are planning stuff that is far beyond the interests of the United States. I think that the White House and the State Department are currently in an open discourse with their own services, which are running a parallel foreign policy and conducting independent operations on foreign soil without the agreement of the White House, Congress, the State Department, or any other “democratic” structure.
These are very dangerous developments since I assume that we now have the first actual attack against Russian civilians coordinated and planned by at least one Western service and executed by their mercenary force, ISIS. And Russia will retaliate… I think a lot of heads are going to roll… in the Middle East, in the Stans, and in the West.
But before all of this happens, the four captured terrorists will have a beautiful spa holiday in one of the FSB “recreational centers” for good citizens. I think this guy on X put it cynically but very well; what will follow in these FSB “recreational centers” now?
President Putin approved impunity for the Russian services, like in the second Chechen war, to do what is needed and broadcast it as an example. By the way… this is exactly what Ukraine’s Nazis are awaiting when Ukraine falls…
If you see in the next days all the images and footage of the torture of these guys… They are approved by President Putin and designed to show everyone in the Russian world (ex-Soviet space and further) what awaits them in such cases. And President Putin knows very effectively how to manage such a campaign. I hinted in one of my articles already how Chechnya was “physically” cleansed and what awaits Ukraine.
Note by the author: Everything I wrote about torture and what will happen here or there is not my opinion but a dry analysis of what is going on.
I’m going to end this article with the latest Telegram post by Dmitry Medvedev:
Here is the machine translation:
“Everyone asks me. What to do? They were caught. Well done to everyone who caught them. Should they be killed? Necessary. And it will be. But it is much more important to kill everyone involved. Everyone. Those who paid, who sympathized, who helped. Kill them all.”
Quote by Dimitry Medvedev.
[i] Edited (25 March at 14:54 UTC) by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)
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