Go to source, above, to hear Dmitry Orlov's usually blunt, incisive answers to Nimo's question. The video doesn't show up here when I try the usual means and it's not worth my time to mess around trying to make it when all you have to do is click the source link.
There is history worth remembering as Trump is lauded in certain circles on the so-called “right” and “left” as a peacemaker with Russia over the US/NATO proxy war against Russia via Ukraine: President Richard Nixon, who ran as the peace candidate in 1968 with a “secret plan” for peace in Vietnam that was actually a plan for more war, visited China in February 1972 in a move to exploit the Soviet-China split, and yet the US war against Vietnam went on until April 30, 1975 when the U.S. was driven out of Vietnam.
I think extreme caution is advised when it comes to Trump’s plans to end the U.S. proxy war against Russia, which, following the Nixon-Kissinger script, seems to be aimed at splitting the Russian-Chinese partnership now threatening U.S. world domination.
Trump, like his predecessor Joseph Biden who presided over the proxy war against Russia and the genocide of Palestinians by Israel, is no man of peace. He is fully in support of the extinction of the Palestinians and behind Israel’s war aims in the Middle-East. So when it comes to his recent overtures to Russia and a resolution to the U.S./NATO proxy war against Russia, one needs to reflect on history and Trump’s inclination to make “a deal.” The man, after all, was a reality-television star and has long reveled in radical reversals of previous statements and intentions. For example, in his first term, he often talked of withdrawing from NATO but never did; NATO, in fact, expanded under his watch. He talked about ending the U.S./NATO support for Ukraine’s bombing of Russian-speaking areas of eastern Ukraine, only to withdraw from the Minsk Accords and send military equipment to Ukraine to bomb those areas.
Those who are praising him now say he is a changed man after time “in the wilderness” these last four years (one is reminded of Nixon’s wandering wilderness days from 1960-1968). Would a changed man have Elon Musk as his right-hand man or have as Vice President JD Vance whose career has been backed by Palantir Technology’s Peter Thiel?
Investigator journalist Whitney Webb has reported extensively on Thiel and Vance’s ties and the interconnections between them and other supporters of the surveillance state tied to the Democrats, such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, among others. If you assume the surface war between Trump and the Democrats is the real deal, Webb’s work will have you wondering. They have their differences, of course, but a reading of history would suggest both fully back the surveillance panopticon that has stolen American’s freedom and privacy in the name of what else – freedom and privacy.
Now Trump-Musk-Vance are touting their dedication to free speech and their opposition to censorship, which are clearly admirable goals. But one needs to remember Marshall McLuhan’s adage that the medium is the message, and that the medium touted by Trump – front and center – is represented by the omnipresence of Elon Musk, whose face symbolizes the smirking machine and the use of digital technology to accumulate and exert power. In a digital age, technological technique is King Propaganda, and technique transforms everything it touches into a machine.
As in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass, the brothers Tweedledee Democrat and Tweedledum Republican fight over their rattle as the audience focuses on their battle while their joint racket goes unattended.
‘I know what you’re thinking about,’ Tweedledum; ‘but it isn’t so, no how.’
‘Contrariwise,’ continued Tweedledee, ‘if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.’
‘I was thinking, Alice said very politely, ‘which is the best way out of this wood: it’s getting so dark. Would you tell me please?’
It is dark. Of course, the way out is to stop reacting and do what the press is obligated to do: be skeptical, question authority, and don’t be cheerleaders for anyone in power, whether they be Biden or Trump or someone else.
The opposite of such skepticism has been happening, and many in the alternative press, who [including me] have correctly accused Biden and the Democrats of war crimes, lies, censorship, Russiagate propaganda, etc., are now awash with grandiose praise for Trump, many calling him a revolutionary in a good sense. This is absurd.
Such hyperbole is quite naïve, as has been the calling of Vice-President JD Vance’s Munich Security Conference speech historic and Ciceronian. It was a good speech [text here] in many ways, but . . . .
He rightly ripped the Europeans for their censorship of dissidents and their repression of alternative voices, although his examples were weak and narrowly focused.
His statement, while surely partisan, was true that “I will admit that sometimes the loudest voices for censorship have come not from within Europe, but from within my own country, where the prior administration threatened and bullied social media companies to censor so-called misinformation.”
His defense of democratic mandates was strong when he said:
You cannot win a democratic mandate by censoring your opponents or putting them in jail, whether that’s the leader of the opposition, a humble Christian praying in her own home, or a journalist trying to report the news. Nor can you win one by disregarding your basic electorate on questions like who gets to be a part of our shared society.
When he criticized European leaders for allowing mass migration into their countries, his hypocrisy stood out. As any fair person should recognize, immigration policies have long been an issue in need of reform. But the mass creation of people fleeing their countries for safe havens in Europe are the direct result of US/NATO war policies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Serbia, Syria, etc., policies supported by Republicans and Democrats alike and seconded by their lapdogs in Europe.
The same is true for immigration here in the U.S.A. where immigration policy has long been in need of reform that neither party would undertake, but the main contingent of immigrants entering this country comes here to escape horrendous conditions in their home countries due in great part to U.S. foreign policies in support of repressive regimes and economic policies favoring the rich amid U.S. efforts to control Latin America. Without those immigrants, the U.S. economy would collapse.
But Vance’s speech is a minor part of my argument here.
The real issue is Trump and the question of whether or not he is for real in his efforts for peace in Ukraine. I am very skeptical and think it is justified.
I am convinced that the US/NATO war against Russia will not be ending unless NATO is dissolved, which Trump is not proposing. He only wishes to strengthen NATO with European money, not that of the U.S. NATO’s only raison d’être is to destroy Russia as an independent country and create regime change there through multiple means. This has always been so. This is why NATO has existed for so long and has expanded. Open warfare in Ukraine is just one means among many they have used over the years. You can end the overt war and continue the covert.
If NATO is not dissolved, the undermining of Russia will continue under Trump, who seems to recognize that the proxy war is lost on the battlefield, a fact obvious for years despite U.S. government and mainstream media propaganda to the contrary – propaganda so blatantly false that it raises questions about people’s gullibility. How many foreign leaders does such media need to call the new Hitlers before people wise up?
Trump’s theatrical antics will persist, however, and Trump and Putin will probably eventually meet and some deal may be struck on Russia’s terms, but if Russia doesn’t want to be tricked again, it should beware the possibility of a Trump Trojan horse.
Apropos today, in 1964 and then in 1965, the great French sociologist Jacques Ellul published his classic studies. First came The Technological Society to be quickly followed by Propaganda, linked books in which he brilliantly shed an early light on what we now find everywhere – a digital world where propaganda is vital for the state’s functioning and where words like democracy, truth, and fact yield to the technologue’s magic wand.
Another French social thinker, Paul Virilio, spoke of the information bomb, the glut of information produced by digital media and the Internet. One key aspect of this marriage is speed, Virilio’s specialty being dromology, the study of speed. It is worth noting how fast Trump has acted in his first month in office. This is no doubt aided and abetted by his right-hand man Elon Musk, Mr. X., Mr. Space Shot, Mr. Digital World himself, who is prominently displayed by Trump’s side at every photo op. Unlike the Biden warmongers who presented themselves in a more circumspect manner while propagandizing the American public, Trump makes it very clear that digital technology is his key to rule. And flooding the information superhighway with a rapid-fire series of orders and pronouncements is presented as government efficiency at its finest. But things happen so fast one can’t keep pace with them.
Elon Musk and Peter Thiel are two technological billionaires who should be considered crucial to Trump’s plans. As Ellul’s work makes clear, such men are key to effective propaganda. How can anyone consider such men benign supporters of democracy and justice?
I think the talk of a Trump revolution in favor of peace and democracy is hyperbolically irresponsible. It is unworthy of good journalism that requires prudence and patience when the powerful pitch their deals. The propaganda from the Biden administration and their mainstream media accomplices should have taught everyone that. But the appeal of a savior is very powerful.
You know, ‘if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic.’
Compos mentis was missing in the Oval Office on Monday morning. French President Emmanuel Macron recognized it, and was so pleased, he repeatedly said: “Thank you, dear Donald”.
The answers to press questions given by President Donald Trump, sitting beside Macron, revealed that Trump doesn’t understand what end-of-war terms President Vladimir Putin has announced, nor the substance of the conversations, back channel and front in Riyadh, which have been going on between the Russians and Trump’s representatives.
In the 28-minute morning presser, Trump spoke in repeated slogans except for a handful of new briefing points he was given by his staff: the President stressed he has no points of difference with the French, the other Europeans, or NATO on how to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. “There was great unity in that room”, Trump claimed of the first round of meetings with the Macron delegation, which included a videolink to other G7 leaders.
“Take back some of the land”, Trump then claimed after being asked what end-of-war terms in the Ukraine he has discussed with Macron. “We’ll see if we get some land back”, Trump repeated.
Asked if he planned to go to Moscow on May 9, Trump revealed he does not know the significance of the May 9 celebration in Russia. “If this all gets settled out, sure I would go, and he could come here, too. I don’t know Ninth of May, no – I, err, that’s pretty soon. At the appropriate time I would go to Moscow…Within weeks. I think we could end it within weeks if we’re smart. If we’re not smart, it’ll keep going…” Trump revealed, however, that he has given up his effort to hold a summit meeting with Putin without preparatory agreement of terms for an end of the Ukraine war.
In the Oval Office, and in a simultaneous social media post, Trump repeated his interest in getting “payback” for US war spending in the Ukraine by negotiating a “rare earths” agreement. “I emphasized”, the media post said, “the importance of the vital ‘Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal’ between the United States and Ukraine, which we hope will be signed very soon! This deal, which is an ‘Economic Partnership’, will ensure the American people recoup the Tens of Billions of Dollars and Military Equipment sent to Ukraine, while also helping Ukraine’s economy grow as this Brutal and Savage War comes to an end. At the same time, I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia. Talks are proceeding very well!”
In repeating to Macron his preoccupation with “rare earths”, Trump revealed in the Oval Office that he has no idea of the geography of the minerals he is negotiating to take over, so that “we get our money back over a period of time. But it is also beneficial to their economy, to them as a country.” Trump does not comprehend that the minerals — “rare earths and other things”, he called them — are mostly located, no longer in Ukraine but in the four new provinces of Russia and on the seabed off Russian Crimea.
Trump also revealed he has no idea of how his proposed US investment in the minerals would be protected and by whom.
Reporters pressed to see if the minerals agreement is subterfuge for a US security pledge to the Kiev regime, substituting for NATO membership. Asked explicitly if the minerals deal will engage a US security guarantee for the Ukraine, Trump answered: “Well, uhh, it’ll be — Europe is going to make sure nothing happens. I don’t think it’s going to be much of a problem. I think once we settle, ahhh, there’s going to be no more war in Ukraine. You’re not go – uhhh, it’s not going to be a very big problem. That’s going to be the least of it.”
Several hours later, when the French president was asked at the second press conference after the talks had concluded, Macron hinted at a division and combination of military “deterrence capacity” between European and US forces which, he said, is a “turning point in my view, and one of the great areas of progress we have made during this trip.” Trump was uncomprehending; he did not remember what Macron had been saying over lunch.
From evidence in Moscow of talks on Trump’s priority “major Economic Development transactions”, Putin has promoted his negotiator, Kirill Dmitriev, to ministerial rank with the title “Special Representative of the President of Russia for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries.” The text of the decree was signed on Sunday evening.
The Kremlin was asked if Dmitriev has been promoted to ministerial rank, and if in future negotiations with the Americans he will be equal in precedence with Foreign Minister Lavrov and Presidential Assistant Yury Ushakov, the Kremlin spokesman said: “I don’t know.”
Dmitriev was talkative in Riyadh on February 18 on the prospects for the return to Russia of US businesses, product brand-names, and investors. But on the US agreement with Kiev for takeover of coal, iron ore, oil, gas and other resources in Novorossiya and the Crimea, Dmitriev has been silent.Late on Monday evening at his country residence, Putin called in a reporter to respond to the Oval Office record. “We would be ready to offer [cooperation] and our American partners, when I say partners, I mean not only administrative and government structures, but also companies – if they showed interest in working together… We would be happy to work with any foreign partners, including those of American ones. Yes, by the way, as for the new territories, the same thing: we are ready to attract foreign partners, and the so-called new our historical territories, who have returned to the Russian Federation, there are also reserves certain. We are ready with our foreign partners, including with American ones, work there too.”
The display of Trump’s incomprehension was emphasized by Macron who prompted him at several points. Click to follow the 28-minute Oval Office press conference: https://x.com/ Note the presence at right of Vice President J.D. Vance. Sitting next to him was Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Behind them was Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Bessent made a single remark; Vance and Rubio remained silent.
Replying to a question of whether he is preparing to abandon the Ukraine, Trump insisted: “No, we’re going to help Ukraine like nobody’s ever helped Ukraine before.”
He then became confused when asked what form this US help would take. “European troops may go into Ukraine as peacemakers [sic]…I don’t think that’s going to be a problem.” Asked if such a European force would have US backing, he said: “Well, we’re going to have a backing of some sort. Obviously, the European countries are going to be involved. And, errr, I don’t think you are going to need much backing. It’s not going to be a problem. Once an agreement is signed, Russia is going to get back to its business, and Ukraine and Europe are going to get back to their business. I don’t think it’s going to be a problem.”
“We’re trying to do some economic development deals with Russia. They have a lot of things we want, and we’ll see – I mean, I don’t know if that will come to fruition. But we’d love to be able to do that. We could — you know, they have massive rare earth – it’s actually the largest, in terms of land, it’s by far the largest country. And they have very valuable things we could use, and we have things they could use, and it would be very good if we could do that.”
As Trump stumbled over what he could remember and was trying to say, his staff published a tweet on the Truth Social platform, repeating Trump’s idée fixe on rare earth minerals, and insulting Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau once again.
It is apparent that if Trump’s staff and advisers have drawn his attention to the US Geological Survey (USGS) tabulation of rare earth mineral reserves by country, Trump cannot remember. The table published in January 2025 shows that China leads in both production and reserves; that Russia trails in fifth place; and that the Ukraine’s rare earth reserves are minuscule by comparison.
RARE EARTH MINERAL PRODUCTION AND RESERVES, BY COUNTRY, JANUARY 2025
In Putin’s response to the Trump tweet, the Russian president corrected Trump’s geography: “we have an order of magnitude – I want to emphasize this – an order of magnitude more resources of this kind than in Ukraine. Russia is one of the undisputed leaders in the reserves of these rare earth metals. We have them in the North – in Murmansk, in the Caucasus – in the Kabardino-Balkaria, in the Far East, in the Irkutsk region, and in Yakutia, in Tuva. These are quite capital-intensive investments, projects capital-intensive. We would be happy to work with any foreign partners, including those of American ones… Pavel Zarubin: In the new regions too? Vladimir Putin: Yes, of course.”
Following further talks with Macron over lunch at the White House, a second press conference was held. This ran for 43 minutes. Trump began by reading from a script which repeated the slogans of his Oval Office presentation. Click to follow here.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_icClkj0Eo The White House House has released the videotape, but after almost 24 hours, it has issued no transcript. There is also no official White House listing of the US officials who participated in the talks.
Trump continued to repeat himself. Then Macron made the only detailed disclosure of what agreements he and Trump had reached during the day. “Can you confirm there is an agreement,” a French reporter asked, “to send European peacekeeping troops? Will France participate in that? How many troops? What will they be doing?”
“Well,” Trump began, “I guess, this is a little strange question”. He then avoided answering, speaking instead for the third time in the day on the restoration of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. “I was there. I saw the work. I’m very good at construction. I know good construction and I know bad construction. They did a beautiful job, and this man has to be given a lot of credit for that.”
Macron responded directly to the question of the end-of-war settlement. He said there had been three areas of discussion on which Trump and the US delegation had agreed during the day at the White House. The first, Macron said, was the terms Vladimir Zelensky will sign in a few days’ time on US takeover of Ukrainian minerals. The second was the sequence of truce, ceasefire, and peace settlement which Trump agreed his negotiators will pursue with the Russians. The third agreement with Trump, according to Macron, was “a clear American message that the US as an ally is ready to provide that solidarity for that approach. That is a turning point in my view. And that is one of the great areas of progress we have made during this trip. And during this discussion.”
What Macron meant is an idea he said he has already worked out with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for preserving the Ukraine politically and territorially with a combination of the NATO forces currently on the Ukrainian battlefield, in a change of deployment and engagement conditions.
“When it comes to troops,” Macron said, “in the past, a year ago specifically, we saw a reason to talk about sending troops for strategic reasons. Today, when we talk about troops, we are talking about sending them in after we have negotiated a lasting peace…. Then at that point … not to go to the front lines, not to go into occupied territory, but as a show of support for — to show we have a negotiated peace, signed by both sides, and that is a peace we will preserve. So these will be peaceful deployments of troops, not for combat. These will be deployments of an assurance force.”
Macron implied that Trump had agreed to provide US military backing for this “assurance force” in the Ukraine. During the talks the US Secretary of Defense, Peter Hegseth, was absent; he was hosting the Saudi Defense Minister at the Pentagon instead.
In his finale at the White House, Macron concluded: “The real change now, compared to 2014, is that we have this deterrence capacity on the American side. We have the capacity for engagement on the European side. And that’s something we are going to continue working on together.”
Trump was unable to respond to the details, nor to the strategic point Macron was claiming Trump has now agreed for a NATO-type military guarantee including US “deterrence capacity” inside the Ukraine. “Emmanuel,” Trump stopped the press conference, ” thank you very much. Great job. And it’s been wonderful being with you. Say hello to your beautiful wife, and we will see you again soon. “
NOTE: In his new interview, Putin made a pitch for US investment in low-cost Russian aluminium production as a counter to Trump’s raised tariffs on the imported metal from Canada and to the European Union’s new sanctions on exports of Russian aluminium.
Russian aluminium is controlled by the oligarch, Oleg Deripaska. For the archive on the metal, click. For the history of Deripaska, read the book.
Left, Oleg Deripaska with President Putin; right, the history of Deripaska’s business practices, including his attempt to assassinate me and then expel me from Russia. The book is available here.
“If it is decided to open the American market for our [aluminium] producers,” Putin said, “then we could sell about two million tonnes in the US market. This would not significantly affect the formation of the price, but, in my opinion, it would still have a restraining effect for the stabilization of prices. In addition, and most importantly in my opinion, is that we could, together with American companies, think about a joint work in this area. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory in the Soviet time there were plans to build a new hydroelectric power plant and create additional production of aluminium production. Aluminium is before everything, energy, and preferably cheap energy. Hydropower is cheap, and among other things, it is also environmentally friendly.” Putin implied that Deripaska’s Rusal is already negotiating with US counterparts. “Yes, some of our companies are in contact with each other and such projects are discussed.”
Mr. Disco Inferno has reverted to his default mode of throwing tantrum after tantrum because nearly everybody in West Asia and beyond is sayin’ NO to the Gaza Riviera Resort and Casino scam.
Here’s a partial pile-up:
Egypt: the Palestinians will not be ethnic cleansed here, or in Jordan, or anywhere else.
Saudi Arabia: We will not normalize with Israel before there is a sovereign Palestinian state.
Turkey, via Sultan Erdogan: No power can remove Palestinians from their “eternal” homeland.
Arab League: this is a “complete detachment from reality.”
Hamas: there will be no more ceasefire violations.
Iran, via Leader Khamenei: we will NOT negotiate anything with you.
And this is just the beginning.
Russia, via Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov: “Washington’s attempts to give Moscow ultimatums or to demonstrate the alleged ‘big favor’ in exchange for unacceptable U.S. demands are doomed to failure in the dialogue with Russia.”
So we should expect Mr. Disco Inferno to go totally ballistic in the next few days, literally burning the [geopolitical] dancefloor: “Burning, burning (Disco Infernoooooo) / burning burning / burn that mother down”.
Now gimme $500 billion in rare earth metals
Mr. Disco Inferno has stated that under his Gaza Riviera scheme,
Palestinians would have no right of return after they are expelled because “they are going to have much better housing.” That will signify the normalization of ethnic cleansing under a Nakba 2.0 on steroids – billed as a “humanitarian” real estate development opportunity in a “phenomenal location”.
It’s no wonder that even feeble Arab vassals of the Empire of Chaos had to reject it. Not to mention that would Nakba 2.0 be implemented, Palestinian armed resistance will go sky-high, with instrumental input by a rejuvenated Hezbollah.
The Trump Gaza Riviera Resort and Casino scheme is essentially reviving an Israeli Ministry of Intelligence deportation framework detailed as early as in October 13, 2023 – and leaked by the Israeli news magazine Calcalist 11 days later.
At the time, the plan called to deport the people of Gaza to north Sinai, after totally “clearing” Gaza and installing them on tent cities in a “closed security zone” within Egypt. This plan was at least partly implemented.
Then, in May 2024, Netanyahu’s office came up with an even more detailed four-step plan which started with – what else – “demolition”. Trump has used the exact terminology to describe Gaza.
The Israeli plan included setting up “Hamas-free zones supervised by an UAE-led coalition; designing “new cities” from scratch; and if everything went swell, rinse and repeat in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. We may be on stage 1 of this plan.
Gaza is in fact the toxic blueprint for a much larger and insidious NATO project, encompassing vast tracts of West Asia, as Israel all the way through has been weaponized by U.S. and UK; Turkey continued to supply it with Azeri oil from the BTC pipeline; and Arab “leadership” has behaved like eunuchs – at least until the announcement of Gaza Riviera.
Compared to the upgraded Forever Wars chapter in West Asia, the Forever Wars chapter in Ukraine is a much tougher proposition.
Mr. Disco Inferno’s much hyped “peace” plan for Ukraine was actually put on hold, as he decided to send his special envoy, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg to the Munich Security Conference to feel the pulse of the NATO vassals.
Translation: let’s cut a deal on all those rare earth metals. The sweaty sweatshirt actor in Kiev is ready to give up all available Ukrainian land and resources to save himself. Problem is the absolute majority of those rare earth metals are in Novorossiya, and already in the possession of Russia.
Mr. Disco Inferno did not beat around the bush:
“They have very valuable lands in terms of rare earth metals, oil and gas. I want our money to be protected, we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars. And they may make a deal, they may not. They may become Russian someday, they may not become Russian. But we will have all this money, and I say I want it back. I said I want the equivalent of, say, $500 billion in rare earth metals. And they basically agreed to do that. So at least we don’t feel like fools.”
U.S.-Russia relations “on the verge of rupture”
Kellogg is dismissed in Moscow’s circles of power as “a representative of the U.S. industrial-military complex” and more bluntly, as the proverbial imperial asset: a militarily illiterate Cold War-style general with zero knowledge of geopolitics. Whenever he opens his mouth in public, that is duly confirmed.
Moreover his daughter, Megan Mobbs, is the president of the RT Weatherman Foundation, which since the start of the war in 2022 runs a logistical hub on the border with Romania to evacuate wounded and killed American mercenaries to a medical center in Germany, as well as to deliver different firms of “aid” to Ukraine.
In January 2023, her foundation sponsored Kellogg’s trip to Ukraine, after which he called the U.S. Senate to “provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defeat Russia’s military, implement strict accountability measures for that military assistance, and do it now.”
The mood in informed Moscow is that a potential U.S.-Russia negotiation will have less than zero effect on the current plans of Russia’s General Staff. On the battlefield, Russian forces continue to advance and consolidate what is defined as a “road net” – former Ukrainian supply routes -, preparing for better weather in Spring which will potentialize even more their advantage on air power and drones.
Once again it was Ryabkov who laid down the line on what Moscow expects from Trump 2.0:
“The first step towards normalizing bilateral relations, meaning negotiations based on the principles of mutual respect and equality, should be taken by the United States. We are open to dialogue, ready to negotiate in a tough bargaining mode, taking into account the realities ‘on the ground’ and our national interests, predetermined by history and geography. So the decisions and choice are up to Trump and his team.”
The problem is the Empire of Chaos does not do “mutual respect and equality”; it is exceptionalist by definition. The Empire of Chaos does not do “dialog”: it’s always “my way or the highway”. And the memory-impaired Empire of Chaos dismisses both “history and geography”.
After detailing how “relations between Moscow and Washington are balancing on the verge of rupture”; how Russia “sees no practical changes” in the U.S.’s Ukrainian policy; how Moscow and Washington “have not yet agreed on high-level contacts”; and how Moscow “does not expect its relations with Washington to get much better” under Trump 2.0, Ryabkov, as a clincher, in fact already painted the Big Picture ahead:
“Washington’s attempts to give Moscow ultimatums or to demonstrate the alleged ‘big favor’ in exchange for unacceptable U.S. demands are doomed to failure in the dialogue with Russia.”
Neither Trump nor Kellogg seem to have gotten the message.
Not to mention that the CIA is feeding them a comet of stupidities when it comes to the state of the Russian economy.
Russia’s economy grew by 4.1% in 2024. Energy and raw materials continue to be sold across the Global Majority and bring in a lot of revenue which now stays in Russia, because transferring capital out is nearly impossible. So now all profits are invested across Russia, which was not the case before the start of the SMO nearly 3 years ago.
The war may be far away from Moscow – over 1,000 km. But the Russian economy as a whole can now be characterized largely as a war economy. The revival of the arms industry generated a lot of jobs in several provinces and in fact redistributed the flow of money within Russia.
All the bombast coming from Trump, the inanities coming from Kellogg and the massive P.R. to come out of the Munich Security Conference won’t alter facts on the battlefield. There will be no two-bit “ceasefire”. Either Ukraine surrenders unconditionally – or the [war] show must go on. Meanwhile, let’s Keep on Trumpin’.
How to do the impossible? America is instinctively an expansionist power, needing new fields to conquer; new financial horizons to master and to exploit. The U.S. is built that way. Always was.
But – if you are Trump, wanting to withdraw from wars on the empire’s periphery, yet nonetheless wanting too, to cast a shiny image of a muscular America expanding and leading global politics and finance – how to do it?
Well, President Trump – ever the showman – has a solution. Disdain the now-discredited intellectual ideology of muscular American global hegemony; suggest rather, that these earlier ‘forever wars’ should never really have been ‘our wars’; and, as Alon Mizrahi has advanced and suggested, set about re-colonising that which was already colonised: Canada; Greenland; Panama – and Europe too, of course.
America thus will be bigger; Trump will act with decisive muscularity (i.e. as in Colombia); make a big ‘show’ of things, but at the same time, shrink the mainstream U.S. security interest to centre on the Western Hemisphere. As Trump keeps observing, Americans live in the ‘western hemisphere’, not in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Trump thus attempts to detach from the American expansionist war periphery – ‘the outside’ – to proclaim that the ‘inside’ (i.e. the western hemisphere’s sphere), has become bigger and is unquestionably American. And that is what matters.
It is a big shift, yet it has the virtue of beginning to be recognized by many Americans as a more accurate reflection of reality. America’s instinct remains expansionary (that doesn’t change), but many Americans advocate a focus on American domestic needs, and its ‘near neighbourhood’.
Mizrahi calls this inside-out adjustment ‘self-cannibalisation’: Europe is part of the western sphere of interest.Indeed, ‘Europe’ regards itself as its progenitor, yet the Trump team has set about re-colonising it – albeit in a Trump vein.
Robert Cooper, a senior British diplomat sent to Brussels, famously in 2002 coined the term liberal imperialism as Europe’s new purpose. It was to be imperialism of soft-power. Yet, still Cooper couldn’t quite let go of European ‘old empire orientalism’, writing:
“The challenge to the postmodern worldis to get used to the idea of double standards. Among ourselves, we operate on the basis of laws and open cooperative security. But when dealing with more old-fashioned kinds of states outside the postmodern continent of Europe, we need to revert to the rougher methods of an earlier era – force, pre-emptive attack, deception, whatever is necessary to deal with those who still live in the nineteenth century world of every state for itself. Among ourselves however, we keep the law: But when we are operating in the jungle, we must also use the laws of the jungle”.
Cooper’s world-view was influential in the thinking of Tony Blair, as well as in the development of European Security and Defence Policy.
The EU élite however, began optimistically to see itself as having top-table (real) ‘empire’ status (global clout),based on its regulatory control of a market of 400 million consumers. It didn’t work. The EU had adopted the Obama stratagem that promised a ‘mind control’ framework which asserts that reality can be ‘created’ through managed narrative.
Europeans were never properly told that an EU trans-national empire implied (and required) the relinquishment of their sovereign parliamentary decision-making. They imagined, rather, that they were joining a free-trade area. Instead, they were being taken to an EU identity through stealth and the careful management of a confected EU ‘reality’.
That European liberal empire aspiration – in the wake of the Trump cultural assault in Davos – looks very passé. The atmospherics hint rather at the passage from one cultural zeitgeist to another.
Elon Musk seems to be tasked with tipping Germany and Britain out from the old worldview and into the new. This is important for the Trump agenda, as these two states are the primary agitators for war to sustain a global – rather than a western hemisphere – primacy. Europe’s decision-making failures over the last years, however, makes Europe an obvious target to a President determined on radical cultural change.
There is precedent for Trump’s Inside-Out ploy: Old Rome too, withdrew from its peripheral imperial provinces to concentrate on its core, when distant wars drained too many resources at the centre, and its army was being outmatched in the Field. Rome would never openly admit to the retreat.
Which takes us back to today’s ‘radical Inside-Out solution’: It seems to consist of ‘go like a demented whirlwind’ domestically – which is what matters most to his base – and, in the international sphere, project confusion and unpredictability. Continue repeating the ancient régime’s ideological shibboleths and counter-factual statistics, but then brace it up with occasional contrarian throw-away comments (such as saying in reference to the Gaza ceasefire that it is ‘their [Israel’s] war’, and that Israel’s interests may not always be those of the U.S., and, seemingly as an aside – that Putin may have already made up his mind ‘not to make a deal’ on Ukraine).
Dissing Putin as a loser in Ukraine perhaps was more addressed to the U.S. Senate and its ongoing confirmation hearings. Trump made these comments days before Tulsi Gabbard faces Senate hearings. Gabbard already is criticised by U.S. ‘hawks’ for allegedly holding ‘pro-Putin’ sentiments, as well as being subjected to a media slur campaign by the deep state.
Was Trump’s apparent disrespect toward Putin and Russia (which caused anger in Russia) said primarily for the ears of U.S. Senators? (The Senate is home to some of the most ardent ‘never-Trumpers’).
And were Trump’s egregious comments about ‘cleansing’ Gaza’s Palestinians to Egypt or Jordan (co-ordinated with Netanyahu, according to an Israeli Minister) intended primarily for the ears of the Israeli Right? According to that Minister, the issue of encouraging voluntary Palestinian migration is now back on the agenda, just as the Right-wing parties have long wanted – and many in Netanyahu’s Likud had hoped. Music to their ears.
Was it then a Trumpian pre-emptive move, designed to save Netanyahu’s government from imminent collapse over the ceasefire’s second-stage, and the threat of a walk-out by his Right Wing contingent? Was Trump’s target audience in this case then Ministers Ben Gvir and Smotrich?
Trump pointedly confuses us – by never making it clear to which audience he is addressing his ruminations at any one time.
Is there nonetheless some substance sedimented within Trump’s comment that any Palestinian state must be resolved ‘in some other way’ than the Two-State formula? Maybe. We should not discount Trump’s strong leanings towards Israel.
Netanyahu faces harsh criticism for mis-handling both the Gaza and Lebanese ceasefires. He has been guilty of promising one thing to one party and the opposite to the other (an old vice): He has promised the Right a return to war in Gaza, yet committed to the unequivocal end to war in the actual ceasefire agreement. In Lebanon, Israel was committed to withdrawal by 26 January on the one hand, yet its military is still there, provoking a human wave of Lebanese returning to the south, hoping to reclaim their homes.
Consequently, Netanyahu at this juncture is utterly dependent on Trump. The PM’s wiles will not be enough to get him off the hooks: Trump has him where he wants him. Trump will get ceasefires, and will tell Netanyahu,no attack on Iran (at least until Trump has explored the possibility of a deal with Tehran).
With Putin and with Russia, the opposite is the case. Trump there has no leverage (the favourite word in Washington). He has no leverage for four reasons:
Firstly, since Russia steadfastly refuses the idea of any compromise that “boils down to freezing the conflict along the line of engagement, that will give time to the U.S. and NATO to rearm the remnants of the Ukrainian army – and then start a new round of hostilities”.
Secondly, because Moscow’s conditions for ending the war will prove to be unacceptable to Washington, as they would not be susceptible to being presented as an American ‘win’.
Thirdly, because Russia holds the clear military advantage: Ukraine is about to lose this war. Major Ukrainian strongholds are now being taken by Russian forces without resistance. This ultimately will lead to a cascade effect. Ukraine may cease to exist if serious negotiations do not take place before summer, the head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov recently warned.
But fourthly, because history is not reflected at all in the word leverage. When peoples who occupy the same geography have different and often irreconcilable versions of history, the western transactional ‘split the power spectrum’ simply doesn’t work. The opposed sides will not be moved – unless some solution recognises and takes account of their history.
The U.S. needs to always to ‘win’. So does Trump understand that the ineluctable dynamics of this war militate against presenting any transactional outcome as a clear ‘win’ for the U.S.? Of course he does (or will do, when professionally briefed by his team).
The logic of the Ukraine situation, to be blunt, suggests that President Putin should quietly advise President Trump to walk away from the Ukraine conflict – to avoid taking ownership of a western débacle.
Putin hinted this week that the Ukraine conflict could end in weeks, so Trump may not have a long wait.
Should Trump want a ‘win’ (highly likely), then he should be steered by Putin’s many hints: Intermediate missile deployments by both parties are creating heightened risk and ‘cry out’ for a new limitation agreement. Trump could say that he saved us all from WW3 – and there could be more than a grain of truth to it.
Dr Hayes not only has a profound grasp of the Armenian genocide and the debt Armenians owe their Syrian saviours but he is able to plant it firmly within the context of the current war being waged against the Syrian people. ~ Armenian Ambassador to Syria, His Excellency, Arshak Poladian.
It was instructive to discuss the reconstruction of Syria today with the Irish academic, Dr Declan Hayes. ~ Kamal Eddin Touma, Minister of Industry, Syrian Arab Republic.
Declan Hayes is a witness for the terrible things that have been done to my tribe and to my people. ~ Mhd Deeb Al Youssef, Member of People’s Assembly, Syrian Arab Republic.
Dr Declan Hayes has proved himself to be a true and consistent friend of the Syrian people in their time of need. ~ Eng. Beshr Yazji, Minister of Tourism, Syrian Arab Republic.
The assistance Dr Declan Hayes has given us at Damascus University is both necessary and highly appreciated. ~ Atef Naddaf, Higher Education Minister, Syrian Arab Republic.
The work of Dr Declan Hayes is essential reading to grasp the enormity of the crimes being committed against the Syrian people. ~ Wael Nader al-Halqi, former Syrian Prime Minister, Syrian Arab Republic.
Dear Dr. Hayes: Thank you for disclosing the hidden truth about the Syrian War. It was never an “uprising;” its origins lay with the CIA, MI-6 and the host of vultures intent on destroying the Syrian people and ripping the flesh from their dead carcasses. Hundreds of billions were spent to topple the duly-elected government of Syria. Though small in numbers, Syria proved to be one of the world’s most stable, tenacious nations. Its army has fought with astounding gallantry and success against two-thirds of the world’s mightiest industrial and military powers. The multibillion-dollar propaganda campaign that western powers waged against Syria has deceived people. While reporting that America, France and Great Britain supported “moderate rebels, fighting for democracy,” our nations actually allied themselves with the world’s most brutal tyrants; the dictators of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. Together, we supported hideous barbarians, who raped, beheaded, burned and crucified incredible numbers—then bragged openly of it by publishing videos of their atrocities. The West reacted as if by saying, “Move along now. Nothing to see here. Get along now with you!” Yet our penniless army of bulldog journalists like you has become a most vexing irritant to the vicious coalition we are leading in our effort to topple Syria. But the fight goes on. Please keep up the fight to defend Syria. Millions of Christians, Alawites and other Syrians depend on us for their survival. May God bless you and your work. ~ Senator Richard H. Black, USA.
You are a special person, a true warrior in The Army of God ~ Archbishop Hilarion Capucci, Syrian-Palestinian and pan-Arab national hero.
You have done the people of Syria a great service. May God bless you forever. ~ His Holiness, Patriarch Ignatius Ephraim, Global Leader of the Syriac Orthodox Church.
I thank the Irish citizen, Dr. Declan Hayes, who visited us in Syria. He visited my house and wrote a book about that. He swore that he would let my voice be heard. I thank Declan for that. ~ His Grace, Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun, Grand Mufti of Syria. Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees, Dublin, Ireland.
I thank you from the bottom of my heart for your great work on behalf of the people of Syria. ~ His Beatitude, Patriarch Gregorios Laham, Global Leader of the Greek Catholic Church.
Thank you for your generous donation to our school. It helped us to pay for counseling for the children who survived the double suicide bombing attack on them. ~ Ms Fatima Al Hussain, Principal, Akrameh al-Makhzum School, Homs, Syria.
Thank you, Dr Hayes, for paying for me to go to Turkey to bring Gafar Azouz, my sole surviving [baby] grandson, back to Damascus after our entire family were murdered trying to cross the border. ~ Ms Hagar Saleh, Damascus.
Hayes’ views on the merits of NATO and Western values, and the democratic freedoms that NATO seeks to protect, will not give any comfort to those whose duty it is to protect the UK. Frankly, it’s dangerous. ~ Crispin Blunt, MP.
We have a saying in Ireland that, though we may not have gone to school, we have met the scholars coming back. With that in mind, the above quotes are given to say that, though I may not have not been seduced with the dulcet words of Lord Ram, Vishu or Krishna as they returned from school, I have met many patriotic Syrians and Armenians who are far more knowledgeable than those who use this site to denigrate them.
As regards retired USMC Col Black, many folks like him understand the art and science of war much more deeply than those like me, who never went to Boot Camp, could ever hope to. Syria, as one patriotic Alawite explained in a nutshell to me over a decade ago, was like a giant buffalo, which was brought down by an unending number of spears being rammed into its vitals. The question with Syria then and Russia now is how to endure.
As regard the uninformed gutter sniping at Asma Assad, let me just say that I keep in touch with her family and, once Asma and her better half settle in Russia, I would hope to avail of his professional services as well as those of Fawaz Akhras, her Harley Street cardiologist father. I would also like to discuss with Asma how we can continue to support Syria’s military and civilian heroes. Call it my bourgeois prejudices but I love cultured women like her, who are a cut and more above their European equivalents, as they are above the rest of us.
Although Lord Ram, Vishu and Krishna might think the Assads betrayed Syria and Asma caught a bad dose of cancer as part of that charade, Kaouthar Bachraoui explained to me years ago that they were the biggest prisoners of the lot, at least so far as the war for Syria’s survival went.
Switching to Russia, we see its President issuing executive orders to its army and making all kinds of pronouncements on BRICS. The dismemberment of Syria and the coming war on Iran’s doorstep should be enough to put that concoction and those who endlessly prattle on about it on ice for the next decade.
Before Putin again turns his mind to that, he must first win the existential war Russia faces in Ukraine where, not unlike Assad, he thought NATO would play by the Queensbury Rules. As NATO is cockahoop about Syria’s destruction, Russia must expect the worst in the form of more assassinations (as in Tehran and Damascus).
Russia boasts of all its new weapons and it warns Rheinmettal about hiding behind Romania’s Ukrainian border. Fine! Turn those factories into ash and turn parts of Ukraine into a car park. Then return for the double tap. Although Russia’s High Command has no doubt worked through all such scenarios, they must act resolutely if Russia is not to become another Syria.
The IRA had a unique approach to issues like this. They would simply assassinate British politicians and blow up their financial infrastructure to catch their attention. Not the Queensbury Rules but it worked. As far as Ukraine is concerned, that is a risk free NATO bet as Ukrainian canon fodder is of no consequence to them. Unless Russia destroys Ukraine, Russia will be finished in the same way the secular Syrian Arab Republic, Iraq and Libya were. As Russia is not going to win any Western popularity contest any time soon, it would be much better off making its point, as the IRA did before it. Russia, like the IRA of decades ago, must call the shots
Russia cannot be deflected by the pie in the sky of BRICS, not at least until the Zelensky regime is hung, drawn and quartered and the punk states of the Baltics learn the hard way their neo-Nazi posturing is not worth the candle.
Russia, like the Assads, is not fighting a popularity contest. Russia, like the Assads’ Syria, is fighting for its life. Time to wake up and smell the coffee. And let Zelensky and his fellow crooks smell the napalm. And an avalanche of Oreshnik hypersonic missiles as well.