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Source: The Unz Review
Netanyahu Committee Says Israel Must Prepare for War with Turkey
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The ousting of Syrian President Bashar al Assad has put the United States, Israel and Turkey on a fast-track to a broader and more violent conflagration. By removing Assad and obliterating the state, the coup managers created a power vacuum that has been filled by the proxy armies of the most vicious and aggressive nations in the world all of whom are now prepared to intensify the fighting in order to determine the final borders of the New Middle East. The gravity of the situation has not been lost on the media which is sounding increasingly hysterical with every passing day. Consider, for example, a few of the headlines that appeared in newspapers on Wednesday:
- Israel must prepare for war with Turkey, gov committee warns, New Arab
- Government Report: Israel Must Get Ready for War With Turkey, The European Conservative
- Turkey-backed Syria may be bigger threat than Iran, says Israeli government panel, Middle East Eye
- ‘Be Ready For War’: Not Iran, Israel Says Turkey-Backed Syria Is Now Bigger Threat, Times of India
- Erdogan’s policies in Syria bring Turkey and Israel closer to confrontation, Jerusalem Post
- Israel incites war with Türkiye after Syrian revolution, Daily Sabah
Get the picture? Now that Assad is gone, the mask has been stripped away, and the competing agendas of the various actors are becoming more apparent. In this new paradigm, the US, Israel and Turkey are not allies attempting to achieve the same objective (toppling Assad), but bitter enemies determined to impose their own strategic vision on the entire region. This is where Washington’s ambitious plan to control the region’s pipeline corridors and critical resources meets head-on with the expansionist Zionist plan for Greater Israel and Turkey’s dream of a new Ottoman empire. The Middle East is simply not big enough for multiple hegemons attempting to control the main levers of regional power or to imposing their own security architecture on their far-flung neighbors. ‘Something’s gotta give.’ Sooner or later, there’s going to be a flashpoint followed by years of bloodletting. This is from an article at the Middle East Eye:
Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it supports a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus, an Israeli government commission said on Monday. Ankara has emerged as a major beneficiary of the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria last month, after a rebel offensive led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed Syrian groups….
The “Committee for the Evaluation of the Defence Establishment Budget and the Balance of Power”… was established in 2023… to develop recommendations for the defence ministry regarding potential areas of conflict Israel could face in the coming years…
“…. it must be considered that Israel may face a new threat arising in Syria, which in some respects could be no less severe than the previous one. This threat could take the form of an extreme Sunni force that would also refuse to recognise the very existence of Israel,” the committee said.
“Furthermore, since the Sunni rebels will wield political power by virtue of their central control in Syria, a greater threat may emerge from them than the Iranian threat, which has been limited due to Israel’s ongoing actions, as well as the restrictions placed on Iran by the sovereign Syrian state.”
The committee warned that the problem could intensify if the Syrian force effectively became a Turkish proxy, “as part of Turkey’s ambition to restore the Ottoman Empire to its former glory”….The presence of Turkish proxies – or Turkish forces – in Syria could increase the risk of a direct Turkey-Israel conflict, its report assessed….
The committee further cautioned that the distinct geopolitical instability in the region could heighten tensions between Israel and Turkey… Turkey-backed Syria may be bigger threat than Iran, says Israeli government panel, Middle East Eye
“Geopolitical instability in the region”?? Israel –that has launched multiple airstrikes on five different countries in the last few months– is worried about “geopolitical instability”?
Give me a break.
In other words, some level-headed Israeli analyst is beginning to wonder if the random toppling a government that posed no security threat to Israel might not have been the best possible strategy.
What’s so shocking about the excerpt is that it proves that neither Israel, Turkey nor the United States had a plan for the “day after” Assad was gone. The political leaders and their respective intelligence agencies were so maniacally focused on deposing “the tyrant”, they never considered the unintended consequences of their action. They just blundered ahead into a situation that can only end in war. And it’s taken these so-called experts nearly a month to figure out what should have been obvious from the very beginning, that if you overthrow a government and plunge the country into chaos, the outcome might be worse than what you started with. Here’s more from the Jerusalem Post:
Israel must prepare for a direct confrontation with Turkey, according to the Nagel Committee’s latest report on the defense budget and security strategy. The committee, established by the government, warns that Turkey’s ambitions to restore its Ottoman-era influence could lead to heightened tensions with Israel, possibly escalating into conflict. The report highlights the risk of Syrian factions aligning with Turkey, creating a new and potent threat to Israel’s security.
“The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report states, warning that Turkish-backed forces might act as proxies, fueling regional instability. The committee’s assessment comes amid Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly assertive policies in the region, which some analysts view as antagonistic to Israel’s interests….
Netanyahu addressed the report, stating, “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected. This report provides us with a roadmap to secure Israel’s future.”…
Bolstering military capabilities
To prepare for a potential confrontation with Turkey, the committee recommended the following measures:
Advanced weaponry: Acquiring additional F-15 fighter jets, refueling aircraft, drones, and satellites to strengthen Israel’s long-range strike capabilities.
Air defense systems: Enhancing multi-layered air defense capabilities, including the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow systems, and the newly operational Iron Beam laser-based defense system.
Border security: Constructing a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley, which would mark a significant shift in Israel’s defensive strategy despite potential diplomatic ramifications with Jordan. Israel must prepare for potential war with Turkey, Nagel Committee warns, Jerusalem Post
War?? The Jerusalem Post thinks there could be a war between Israel and Turkey?
How is it that the editors of the Post are only figuring this out now, when Muammar Gaddafi figured it out more than a decade ago. Take a look:
Let me get this straight: Gaddafi grasped that Israel’s plan to splinter Syria would create a hard border in the north with Turkey, but no one at the CIA, Mossad or Turkey’s MIT could draw that same obvious conclusion?
WTF?!?
Keep in mind, these are the same “experts” that were back-slapping and high-fiving just last week when Assad was ousted . Now these same spooks and pundits have gone into full-panic-mode demanding that Israel “bolster their military capabilities” to confront an enemy more formidable than Iran.
And, in the north, the situation is even more ominous due in large part to Washington’s continued support for Kurdish separatists (SDF) who have carved out their own state in the heart of the Arab world. Try to image Biden’s response if Putin decided to send troops and weaponry to a group of separatists in Texas who declared themselves independent of the US and seized all the oil wells across the state. What do you think Biden’s reaction would be?
Turkey’s President Erdogan is doing nothing that Biden wouldn’t do under the same circumstances. He’s building up his forces and threatening to attack Washington’s allies in northeastern Syria which dramatically increases the probability of war breaking out between two members of NATO. This is from an article at The Cradle:
Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on 6 January that Kurdish militias in Syria will soon be driven out of the country and that Ankara will not agree to any policy allowing them to maintain a presence there. Fidan said it was a “matter of time” before the Peoples Protection Unit (YPG) gets “eliminated,” stressing that it must lay down its weapons “as soon as possible.”
The YPG is the Syrian branch of Ankara’s sworn foe, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The YPG is considered the backbone of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Washington’s Kurdish proxy in Syria.
“Conditions in Syria have changed,” Fidan stated. “PKK’s empire of violence built over Kurdish people is on the verge of collapsing.”
Under the pretext of securing its borders and pushing away Kurdish militants, t he Turkish military has been illegally occupying northern Syria since 2017 and supporting a coalition of armed factions called the Syrian National Army (SNA) – made up of several extremist groups such as Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham.
The SNA has incorporated scores of ISIS fighters and commanders into its ranks over the years. It played a significant role in the 11-day shock offensive, which ended with the collapse of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government on 8 December.
Since the fall of Damascus, the SNA and SDF have been engaged in fierce clashes with one another. The clashes have escalated in recent days, as a US-brokered truce has failed.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on 5 January that over 100 fighters from both sides have been killed in the last few days. The clashes are focused in the northern city of Manbij in the Aleppo countryside….
SDF forces remain in control of large chunks of northeastern Syria and part of Deir Ezzor governorate, in particular, the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. The Kurdish militia, created with the support of the US in 2015, has helped Washington retain control of Syria’s oil and wheat-rich regions since 2017. Turkiye vows ‘imminent eradication’ of Kurdish militias as death toll skyrockets in north Syria, The Cradle
So, while developments in the south are increasingly ominous, in the north, the fighting has already begun. Erdogan is going to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish state whatever the cost and even if his actions put him in direct conflict with US forces. From a national security point of view, Turkey cannot allow a hostile separatist entity to occupy strategic outposts along its southern border. This is not a negotiable issue. The Kurds must settle for partial autonomy under the auspices of the new Syrian state. That is the only mutually palatable remedy.
What do these three articles tell us?
They tell us that the situation on the ground in Syria is deteriorating fast and that all the main players are being dragged inexorably towards war. They tell us that Turkey and Israel are likely to clash over undetermined borders in the south and over Israel’s absurd claim that it can conduct airstrikes in Syria whenever it wants.
They tell us that no one was prepared for the fall of the Assad and that –as a result– no one developed a coherent plan for establishing security, preserving a contiguous state, or ending the hostilities. In short, there is no plan, no strategy, nothing. Our foreign policy mandarins are simply improvising, making it up as they go along, and reacting to events as they unfold.
And that is precisely how nations sleepwalk into world wars.
