Friday, March 31, 2023

"Russia-China Partnership: What is the use of it for Africa?" by Oleg Pavlov

 

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Source: New Eastern Outlook

Russia-China Partnership: What is the use of it for Africa?

Africa Russia

President Xi Jinping undertook a landmark visit to the Russian Federation from March 20 to 23. It was full of events and symbolism, which will be analyzed by political scientists for a long time to come. It is now clear nonetheless that this visit signaled the beginning of a profound transformation of the entire international relations system, which would have a direct impact on the African continent.

The very fabric of the visit and the manner in which it was arranged demonstrate that it was conceived and realized by both sides precisely as designed: the Chinese leader came to Moscow on his first state visit since his re-election; his arrival was preceded by an exchange of conceptual articles by the Russian and Chinese leaders, in which they essentially heralded the beginning of a new era in international relations; during the visit, the parties exchanged important statements and demonstrated a model of cooperation between the countries in the 21st century.

If we summarize the two leaders’ statements, they spoke in unison in favor of constructing a multipolar world based on respect for the norms and principles of international law, particularly those enshrined in the UN Charter, and on the principles of security indivisibility, recognized universal values, mutual benefit, and a long-term positive partnership in which the parties adhere to a strong tradition of continuous and substantive dialogue.

Western commentators focused on the Chinese leader’s streamlined wording, primarily with regard to the conflict in Ukraine, missing the main point: Xi Jinping’s visit in the midst of the Russophobic campaign in the West and attempts to pressure and harass Russia, as they say, to isolate it “across the board”, was in itself a challenge to the system of coordinates in foreign policy that the West has decided to impose on the world.

Let us now see what the collective West, which claims to be “more united than ever,” has to give the world.

First. They effectively seek to return the world to a paradigm that isn’t even unipolarity, but a completely colonial structure of thought and action, hidden behind accusations of Russian imperialism and aggression. This means the selective application of international law: Quod licet Jovi, non licet bovi (meaning ‘what is permitted to Jupiter is not permitted to an ox’). Yugoslavia was bombed in 1999 by the US and its allies under the pretext of “humanitarian intervention” after creating “evidence” of the massacre of civilians in Srebrenica by the Serbs. A similar strategy was used in Iraq, whom the US invaded alongside its allies under the guise of Saddam Hussein’s regime developing biological weapons. As it turned out later, none of this happened, but the country was destroyed. The same plan was then implemented in Libya, but this time it was done so in the name of defending the rights of the opposition. The same is true for Ukraine: there, the West resolves its security issues by unceasingly growing NATO and advancing its war capabilities closer to Russia’s borders, entirely ignoring Moscow’s worries, while attributing the aggression to the Russian side, which dared to defy Western demand.

Because of this, the West has rejected the idea that security cannot be divided, declaring that security for itself and its allies comes first while actually treating them like vassals without the ability to vote.

The second component of the Western-centric model is the total subjection of those who have declared themselves allies to the interests of the superpower, notably the United States and the global elites behind it. There is no democracy, no efforts are allowed to anyone to defend their best interests. Germany’s efforts to build its economy at the price of cheap Russian energy resources is a noteworthy example. They were ignored coldly, and the Russian gas pipes were simply blown up: purchase our LNG at three times the price and keep quite! Furthermore, a “war till victory” in Ukraine is being imposed on all Western European allies, regardless of whether it is in their national interests.

Moving on. The Western concept of democracy is not open to debate, and country differences, cultural identities, customs, and values are not taken into account. Everyone is given the same prescription, which cannot be changed – the framework is one and is declared to be mankind’s greatest achievement. Any divergence is subject to penalties and prosecution by the International Criminal Court, which effectively establishes a universal criminal code that, for reasons that are not clear, must supersede domestic law. It is mandated that gender equality come with mandatory protections for the rights of sexual minorities. Why sexual? Nobody offers an explanation; it is simply how it is. Yet, as experience has shown, notably in Ukraine, national minorities’ rights can be crushed with impunity, even up to the prohibition of national language and culture, expulsion of clergy from the Temple, and erasure of national memory.

Now let’s look at the economics. It is postulated in Western discourse that if your country develops democratic institutions in the Western sense, it must be doing well economically. What if it isn’t? The IMF and World Bank subsequently rush to your aid. However, it turns out that these loans are given at high interest rates and have a relatively short “leverage,” which means that you are required to pay back the debt quickly, and if you do not have time, the debt will not necessarily be restructured and certainly will never be forgiven, but new, unfavorable conditions would rather be imposed. All of these loans will prohibit you from expanding your own business, but they will keep your market open to Western goods and capital, sustaining your dependence on Western nations in other areas as well as in terms of technology. It is unlikely that anyone will develop high tech production in your country; instead, they will be preoccupied with how to swiftly and inexpensively pump out your resources. Europe, which has been left without Russian resources and is now looking for alternatives, desperately requires them, particularly oil and gas. In light of this, Europeans do not aspire to build processing facilities on the African soil, at least not ones owned by Africans.

The same holds true for Africa’s single currency. Muammar Gaddafi’s fate, who sought to adopt the gold dinar for the entire continent, is highly revealing. The best model for Western countries is the CFA franc zone, in which 70% of the finances of 14 African states, principally members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), are held in French banks. Yet any of these countries may only withdraw these funds theoretically since there hasn’t been a precedent for the practice.

We may be told in response that the West remains the world’s economic and technological leader, that it, represented by the US Federal Reserve, is the issuer of the world’s main currency, the dollar, which is used in 42% of settlements, while the yuan is used in only 2% of global trade transactions, and Russia’s GDP is only 2% of global GDP. Such data, however, appears deceptive, because it is clearly evident to everyone that the Western model of financial capitalism is in its last throes, the dollar is printed indiscriminately at the same pace as in some African countries, and it is backed only by Washington’s “word of honor” (remember When George H.W. Bush said, Read my lips), the United States’ national debt has surpassed the unfathomable $30 trillion threshold, and Western countries consume more than 40% of global GDP, producing many times less commodities but many times more financial services in the form of purely speculative transactions. Unlike the yuan, which is rich in             full-fledged goods produced in the Celestial Empire, and Russia’s use of the Chinese currency (renminbi), which was agreed upon during President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, makes it much more appealing for international settlements, because Moscow is the source of 20% of the world’s hydrocarbons and a producer of a diverse range of military and civilian goods.

When you combine this well-functioning model of equal partnership between Russia and China with the growing popularity of non-Western associations such as the BRICS, SCO, and others, it becomes evident where the wind of global change is blowing and who will shape the world in the future.

Africa is invited to decide whom it wants to cooperate with and in what kind of world to live in – a world of diktat and constant robbery or a world of mutually beneficial cooperation leading to security and development.

Petr Konovalov, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.

"Did They Light Up a Cigarette Afterward?" by James Howard Kunstler

 

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Source: Clusterfuck Nation

Did They Light Up a Cigarette Afterward?

“Reading all the 2016 warnings from the Normalcy Guardians and self-professed Democracy Protectors about how there’s literally nothing more corrupt or dangerous than craving the prosecution of your political opponent — especially for trivial crimes — is really quite something.” — Glenn Greenwald

   The New York Times enjoyed its long-delayed tantric Trumpgasm so much today that it rolled out the full-page banner headline format usually reserved for the commencement of world wars. (They took the banner down before seven o’clock this morning.) For many of the cat-ladies employed as “reporters” at the once-august paper, it was the first Trumpgasm they’ve ever experienced in a lifetime of emotional displacement, over-eating, and furious knitting of pink polyester hats for the crusade to root out patriarchal wickedness.

     This fulfillment of a years-long psychodrama, starring the feared and loathed occult persona of the gold-coiffed “Daddy” figure who once presided in the political household, came at the hands of dragon-slayer Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, archetype of the many long-oppressed victims worked to death in the bilges of our slave ship of state — now turned righteous Woke deliverer of cosmic vengeance!

      This, of course, is brought to you by the party of hoaxes, flimflams, and mandated death shots, so it’s amusing here on the sidelines to see The Times’s op-ed writers squirm with post-coital pleasure underneath the full-page Trumpgasmic headline. The lead editorial declares: “Even Donald Trump Should Be Held Accountable”— overlooking the utter absence of accountability that has been the norm in every recent insult to the nation’s dignity from wholesale and repeat election fraud, to six years of lawless depravity in the FBI, to overt support of Antifa and BLM street havoc, to the forced, deceitful administration of deadly “vaccines.”

      “How a President’s Arrest Can Strengthen a Democracy,” honorary cat-lady Nicholas Kristoff opined, repeating the bad-faith trope that his legions of Wokery have an interest in political rectitude — when, in fact, they are solely preoccupied with coercing, censoring, cancelling, persecuting, punishing, and defenestrating anyone who objects to their grifts and hustles. “Only love and a leap of faith can break through distrust. That is why a credible form of patriotism is so important right now,” explained The Times’s official Superintendent of Platitudes, David Brooks, to soothe consciences grated by this loutish gambit to shove a political adversary off the game board in advance of an election. “Joe Biden may not be your cup of tea,” Mr. Brooks summed up his civics lesson, “but he’s restored sanity, effectiveness and decency to the White House.”

     Oh, really? That will surely come as news to casual observers who are watching the “Joe Biden” wrecking crew in wonder and nausea as they dismantle every institution and undermine every norm in American life. A more credible form of patriotism would be, say, a general strike against this cabal of degenerates, serving to remind them that at least half of the public still cares about the Constitution, the rule of law, and actual decency (not a depraved simulacrum of it). Otherwise, why would “Joe Biden’s” DOJ lock-up scores of Jan 6 protesters in the DC Jail for years on misdemeanor charges without taking them to law? Why does the “Joe Biden” State Department persist in destroying Ukraine and pounding billions in taxpayer money into the place to accomplish it? Why has the “Joe Biden” regime adopted the drag queen as its mascot? What part of all that evinces “sanity, effectiveness and decency?”

    It’s a little early to assess the knock-on effects of the Left’s ecstatic Trumpgasm. A common theme flying across the Web is that Alvin Bragg’s jerry-rigged case will only make a martyr of Mr. Trump, neatly illustrating and personifying the government’s apparent war against its own citizens — making it clear that they will stop at nothing and no one to enforce the corrupt bureaucracy’s will against the public — and that the net result will be to ensure Mr. Trump’s reelection in 2024.

      This comes at a time when that government — the “Joe Biden” regime — presides over the collapse of what’s left of America’s economy, the crack-up of the banking system, and the shocking loss of our country’s influence in the geo-political arena. All of that is manifesting as increased general hardship across the US population: a whole lot of citizens going broke, going hungry, losing their property and chattels to bankruptcy, losing their children to Woke-induced psychopathology, and — the final insult — being subjected to a medical racketeering operation that ruins and murders them when they get sick.

     The Party of Chaos looks pretty smugly secure for the moment. If Alvin Bragg’s flimsy case in New York falls apart, as many expect, they have grand juries lined up against Mr. Trump in other jurisdictions, waiting patiently to take their turns at the political assassination of this supposed “threat to our democracy.” Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared yesterday that Mr. Trump “has the right to prove his innocence.” She apparently forgot how our legal system works, which is that defendants are presumed innocent and it’s the government’s task to prove someone guilty.

     As to qualifications to be president, the Constitution simply states: a presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen of the United States, a resident for 14 years, and 35 years of age or older. There is no language in Article II that might legally prevent someone convicted of a crime, fairly or otherwise, from running for the job.


"The Bakmut Diversion and the Donbass Defense -- A View from Donetsk" by Russell Bentley

 

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Source: The Greanville Post

THE BAKMUT DIVERSION AND THE DONBAS DEFENSE – A VIEW FROM DONETSK

A radically different, even disquieting interpretation of what could well be the pivotal battle of this entire conflict.

March 30, 2023 20 minutes read
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by Russell Bentley

OpEds

A "Wagner musician" in the Bakmut area. The Wagner PMC has proved to be one of the most valuable formations in the Russian armed forces. (TGP screenshot)

Everybody in the world is talking about Bakmut these days, and the AFU/NATO Spring Offensive that is expected before the end of April, less than a month away. The Wagner Musicians are having a hard fight in Artemovsk/Bakmut, but do continue to advance.  The largest concentration of  UAF/NATO troops on the Donbas Front today is definitely there. Or at least in that vicinity. Pregozhin reports a ukrop troop concentration of 80,000 soldiers in the area.

Other reports from Bakmut mention "several hundred tanks and IFV's" in Bakmut, which is a formidable task force, but nowhere near 80,000.  And, in fact, 80,000 troops is far more than would be required for a total rout of the Wagner and RF Army forces around Bakmut. The nazis have concentrated some of their most savage fighters, not in the city itself, but in the vicinity, including AZOV, the "Free Russians", AIDAR, 1st Border Detachment, and 241st Territorial Defense Brigade, all of which are genuine hardcore nazis, and among the best equipped in the ukrop army. There are also an unknown but militarily significant number of highly trained and motivated foreign "mercenaries" from NATO countries in the area. The estimates vary widely, but all agree the number is in the thousands.

Currently, and as usual, the main determining factor in whether Wagner will be able to surround, take, and hold the city (or even hold their current positions) will again be the amount of fire and material support they get (or don't get)  from RF Army Command, which has so far proven itself to be rather dubious at best.  If the AFU/NATO make a concentrated counter-attack on Bakmut, a failure to have sufficiently reinforced and re-supplied the Russian and Republican troops will be a virtual death sentence for the Wagner "Musicians", among the greatest Heroes of this war. There also remains a risk, and serious indications, of counter-attacks in the Zaporozhia  and Ugledar areas, but I think these will probably be feigned, and not occur unless a prior breakthrough by the ukrops develops elsewhere first.  And by "elsewhere", I do not mean Bakmut, I mean the major cities along the Donbas Front - Gorlovka and Donetsk/Makeevka.


CURRENT TROOP CONCENTRATIONS ALONG THE Donbas FRONT ACCORDING TO UKRAINE MEDIA SOURCES (Scale: I--------------I 50 Km/30 miles) (Source - https://militaryland.net/maps/deployment-map/)


One scenario the "experts" have so far failed to mention is the very real and ongoing danger that the ukrops may make another attempt to do exactly what they originally planned to do in March of 2022 - break through the Donbas Front and enter directly into the main cities of the DPR.  Understand that the second biggest concentration of ukrop troops after Bakmut is between Ugledar and Avdeevka, right along the Donetsk/Makeevka city limits. It would be no cakewalk, but if the ukrops can break through our defenses on the edge of these cities, and advance 15 Km (less than 10 miles) from their present positions, they will literally be in the center of Donetsk and Makeevka, the two biggest cities in the DPR.  Gorlovka, the 3rd biggest city in the DPR, also still remains on the firing line, with significant ukrop army concentrations on the edge of the city.  It is less than 30 Km (20 miles) from Bakmut to the center of Gorlovka. All the units around Bakmut could instead attack Gorlovka, a move that no one seems to be talking about, but one I sure hope our guys are prepared to deal with.

 
If the nazis can occupy Gorlovka, they can occupy Makeevka and Donetsk which completely changes the dynamics of the whole war. If the nazis enter Donetsk, Makeevka and/or Gorlovka, it makes the battles for Bakmut and Ugledar superfluous. And if Donetsk, Makeevka and Gorlovka are occupied by nazi troops, the Zaporozhian land bridge to Crimea, and Crimea itself, can be dissected at leisure, because if Russia loses Donetsk, Makeevka and Gorlovka, they have already lost the war. And if Donbas falls, Crimea will fall, and if Crimea falls, Russia will too. This possibility is very real, and the AFU/NATO attack will almost certainly occur within the month.

Most of those who are qualified to have an opinion expect a major UAF/NATO offensive before the end of April, if not sooner. A very dangerous and serious attack, with existential implications for Donbas, Russia and the world. Actions and statements by NATO and Ukrainian forces almost guarantee an offensive is coming, and soon. The only, and key, question, is where. Consider the following -

The original attack plan, scheduled for the first week of March, 2022, for a decisive Ukrainian victory over the DPR/LPR/Crimea was to begin with a concentrated assault on the major cities of the Republics - Lugansk, Gorlovka and Donetsk/Makeevka. That plan has been postponed by the SMO, but it has not been abandoned or forgotten. Russia's lack of military progress, the fact that after a year of heavy fighting, the UAF/NATO military positions near these cities are effectively in the same place they were a year ago, in the same positions the original offensive was planned to be launched from, is almost an invitation for them to try again. And while Russia has significantly reinforced troop strength in the cities, it would not, and does not, preclude the possibility of the  UAF/NATO trying it again. The fact is, confirmed by sources from both sides, that in spite of heavy losses, Ukraine currently has a reserve force of 200,000 troops, in theater, and ready for action. The number of Russian troops in the Donbas theater of operations is not known, but what is known is that Russian forces have also suffered heavy casualties over the last year, and it does not appear that the reserve troops raised are actually in the conflict zone, ready for action. The original attack was planned with 150,000 UAF/NATO troops involved. Now, they have 200,000...

PHOTO OF THE ACTUAL ORIGINAL UAF/NATO ATTACK PLAN FOR MARCH 2022. PRIMARY TARGETS - GORLOVKA, MAKEEVKA, DONETSK (SOURCE - https://t.me/hackberegini)

 

If UAF/NATO counter-attacks from Bakmut or Ugledar, or towards Melitopol or Berdyansk, what are the military advantages? Very little, if any. The first two are empty cities razed to rubble, the second two are over 100 Km from the current UAF/NATO positions on the Zaporozhia Front, across open and empty enemy territory, with UAF/NATO assault groups and re-supply columns open to attack from both sides along the entire route.  A frontal attack on the Bakmut or Ugledar Fronts gain the UAF/NATO nothing of military value, and only place the attacking forces deeper within the pincers that the Wagner and DPR forces have worked so hard to create, and again, in empty, open enemy country, vulnerable to attack from both sides.

But if the 80,000  UAF/NATO troops around Bakmut suddenly withdraw to Konstantinivka, giving a "victory" to Russian Forces attacking Bakmut, which move in to take the empty pile of rubble, the ukrop troops are free to move south along the Ukrainian-controlled T0304 and T0516 highways, and by the time they reach the front line RF/DPR positions, they are literally 7 Km ( 5 miles) from the city center of Gorlovka. If half the 80,000 troops from Bakmut area move on Gorlovka, they will certainly break the Gorlovka Front (barring Russian use of tactical nukes) and be able to move into the city. If the other 40,000 troops move down the H20 Highway, (which is also under UAF/NATO control and mostly out of range of Russian artillery) they can break the northern pincer of the Russian attack on Avdeevka and simultaneously attack Yasynuvata, and moving south behind the Front, split Makeevka and Donetsk. Factor in the artillery in and behind Avdeevka, and the UAF troops concentrated around Ugledar making a sudden shift to Mariinka, about 15 miles (24 Km) north and all the major DPR cities suddenly, in a matter of a day or two, find themselves facing another 100,000 to 200,000 combat-ready troops, in addition to the thousands already there, right on their doorstep, if not actually within their city limits.

If a UAF/NATO assault force is able to advance a mere 15 Km (9 miles) forward from their present positions on the city limits of Donetsk/Makeevka and Gorlovka, they will literally be in the center of these cities, surrounded by well over a million Russian civilian human shields, which negates Russia's main military advantages - air, missile and artillery power. Occupying these cities also gives the invaders the opportunity to loot food, water, fuel, housing and other resources that do not exist in razed cities or open terrain, and do not have to be transported forward or even paid for. Furthermore, an attack on the main cities would immediately trigger a mass exodus of refugees towards the Russian border, which would cause instant gridlock, paralyzing the roads between the cities and border in both directions.

There are only three border crossings between the DPR and Russia - Uspenka, Marynivka and the southern crossing at Novoazovsk. The closest to Donetsk is Uspenka, at a distance of about 100 Km, over poorly maintained, mostly 2-lane roads. The other two border crossings are further, with inferior roads in worse condition. And while the DPR is de jure now part of the Russian Federation, de facto, the border inspections and passport control still continue as before, with the resulting lines of scores, if not hundreds, of waiting vehicles at the border, (even under normal conditions) which will be the cork that will quickly block all the roads, all the way back to Donetsk, in case of an attack, or even the credible threat of one.

The instant gridlock would make Russian reinforcements from the Southern Military District in and around Rostov, Taganarog or Sambek extremely slow and difficult, if not impossible. And whatever Russian reinforcements did arrive to defend the cities, would arrive after a more than 100 Km road march across open country, undoubtedly under fire, only to arrive and have to go directly into combat against an already ensconced enemy, dispersed throughout a built-up urban area filled with friendly civilian human shields.

On March 23rd, it was reported by EurAsia Daily and others that Taiwan has already delivered «almost 1,000» drones to Ukraine that were not only capable of dropping bombs, but were also programmed to function as a swarm, and interact autonomously with each other. UAF terrorists have already posted multiple videos of their production and use of chemical weapons, including one which filmed two Russian soldiers being killed by poison gas. DPR military has also published a video of one of their soldiers suffocating after an enemy drone dropped a poison gas bomb near his combat position. The production and use of chemical weapons by ukrop nazis has been confirmed by multiple sources on both sides.  The UN and OPCW have studiously ignored the irrefutable proof of these war crimes and the use of these prohibited weapons, effectively giving the "green light" to their further and wider use. They have been, and will be, used.

Now, imagine a thousand, or even a hundred, drones swarming across the Front and into a major city full of civilians. If even a few civilians or soldiers were killed by poison gas, how long do you think it would be before videos of them convulsing and choking to death in the streets got on social media and panic starts?  Ukrop media says the drones will be used to sow panic, "in Crimea", but there are no major population centers within drone range in Crimea. But Donetsk/Makeevka and Gorlovka are literally on the front lines, and heavily populated. It is no secret that there are not enough gas masks for the soldiers here, much less for the civilian population in these cities. If you were a nazi terrorist with a thousand swarming drones and chemical weapons, where would you use them? In the empty rubble of Bakmut? The open fields on the way to Melitopol? Or in the major cities of Donbas?

I am not a military genius, but I have read Sun Tsu, Von Clauswitz, Patton, Rommel, and Che Guevara. I have studied history. And I have played a lot of chess,  and I have learned from all of the above. I am, as Scott Ritter recently pointed out, not an "intelligence officer", but unlike Ritter, I am intelligent. As a combat veteran, I have learned that the most important skill a soldier can have is to clearly see and analyze reality, and from this understanding, be able to predict what the enemy will do next, by putting myself in my enemy's position and asking myself what I would do if I were him.

I also understand that everything our enemies say in public is a lie. When the NATO nazis announce they are going to send depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine, it means it is already here. The more Zelensky says he does not have enough weapons and ammo to mount an offensive, the more he really means he already has. The goal of those who own and control the Kiev Regime and the NATO and Western militaries and governments is to destroy Russia as an obstacle to their ambitions for world domination, while causing as much death and destruction as possible. If I was them, and that was my goal, and I had their weapons and assets, 1,000 swarming drones, poison gas, 200,000 soldiers in reserve, and no human conscience, where do you think I would use them? Where would you?

There comes a time in a chess game where competent observers can tell with a high degree of certainty who will win and who will lose. And from there it is not far to the point of inevitability, where there may still be a few futile moves to make, but the game is already and irreversibly lost. In the Donbas War today, it is not quite yet "Mate in three", but it is close. But the game, and the war, can still be won. As a combat veteran and patriotic citizen defender of Donbas and Russia, and as a competent observer, I have a few suggestions...
 
Wars are won by the side that makes the least mistakes. And they are lost by military commanders who make egregious mistakes, and are allowed to continue to do so. The litany of mistakes by the top Russian military decision-makers, the complete disregard for the most basic principles of military science, in both their number and severity, cannot be excused, and can only be explained by a level of astronomic stupidity or something worse, on the part of those responsible. And these mistakes, if indeed that's what they are, predate the SMO by years. To think that the same ones who have wasted an ocean of blood and a mountain of gold only to bring their Motherland to the threshold of disaster, will suddenly unveil some brilliant plan to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat is delusional. They should have been replaced months, if not years, ago, and as long as they maintain decision-making authority over military operations, they are the greatest impediment to the possibility of Russia saving itself from the dire situation it now finds itself in. They must be replaced immediately by competent, serious and combat proven soldiers of the caliber of Khodakovsky, Pregozhin, and Surovikin.

Russia's most imperative task is to prevent the entry of UAF/NATO units into the urban areas and civilian concentrations of the major cities of the DPR, at any cost, up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The cities on the Donbas Front should be massively reinforced, starting yesterday, to the point where a breakthrough, even by an assault force of up to 200,000 will not be possible, understanding that an enemy advance of just a few miles changes the entire dynamic of the war, militarily and politically, putting Russia at great risk and serious disadvantage. Russia only gets one chance to get this right. If the nazis make it into the main cities of Donbas, Russia has lost Donbas, Crimea and the war.

There are thousands of combat veterans of the DPR defense forces who, for one reason or another, are not currently on active duty. I myself am one of them, due to the fact that I am 63 years old. But I have a Makarov pistol and my trophy AK, and can still defend my home and country if need be. Russia should immediately begin forming and arming civilian self-defense units, whether their existence may be considered militarily significant or not. If the nazis take the Donbas cities, they have often and openly announced their plans for "filtration" of the entire civilian population. To be "filtered" by nazis is a death sentence, simply a code word for genocide. Russia will be complicit in this nazi genocide if it fails to defend more than a million of Russian citizens, and refuses them even the means to defend themselves.

Russia must immediately, fully and permanently prevent the movement of troops and weapons from the West to the Donbas Front. The primary method of transport for these troops and weapons is by rail, on railroad bridges across the Dnieper River. There are 40 bridges that cross the Dnieper River in Ukraine, 12 of which are operational railroad bridges. To destroy some or all of these rail bridges (which should have been done in the first few days of the SMO) will severely degrade the ability of UAF/NATO forces to rotate, reinforce and resupply the nazis attacking the Donbas Front. Vladimir Putin was recently asked directly by a Russian journalist about these railroads and bridges. He answered that what could be done, had been done, and that the reason the bridges still stood was because it was not possible to destroy them. I believe this was the first time I have ever heard him lie.
 

"USE IT OR LOSE IT..."

 
 
I was trained as a Combat Engineer in the US Army, and that training included specifically learning to build and destroy bridges. Russia has the technical ability and military arsenal to destroy these bridges and prevent their reconstruction, but somehow, lacks the political will to accomplish this military imperative. The TU-22M strategic bomber can carry 18 FAB-500 bombs, a total payload of almost 20,000 lbs of high explosives. Russia has recently begun using the upgraded version of FAB-500 to satellite-guided smart bombs (comparable to US JDAM bombs) which can be released and guided to target from as far as 40 miles (63 Km) away.  There are 12 rail bridges across the Dnieper in Ukraine, none of which could remain operational after a strike by 18 satellite-guided bombs of 1,100 pounds each. Russia had at least 63 TU-22M's in service in 2018, it probably has more today. Do the math.

Yes, major airstrikes on bridges in central Ukraine would entail some serious risks, and the loss of some aircraft is almost a certainty. But the southern bridges near Kherson and Odessa could be approached from over the Black Sea, the central bridges near Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk approached from Russian-controlled territory east of the river, and the northern bridges near Kiev, from Russia itself (or even shorter from Belarus), all of which put planes on target with relatively short flight times in UAF/NATO controlled airspace. Risky and potentially costly, yes, but totally possible, and absolutely essential.  The Russians may suffer significant losses of their air force in an air raid on the Dnieper rail bridges, but the alternative is to lose the war, and suffer a devastating and humiliating defeat.

Above all, Russia's political-military and political leadership must understand that the NATO nazi invasion of Ukraine today, is and will remain, every bit as much of a lethal threat to Russia's existence as a nation and survival as a people as the German nazi invasion of 1941 was. And it must be fought with the same dedication, wisdom and sacrifice as the Great Patriotic War, because the stakes are the same for Russia and for Russians - Victory or Death.

I have said since I arrived in Donetsk in 2014, that "As goes Donbas, so goes the world."  Those of us who have stood our ground for 9 years and fought the nazis of the 21st century to a standstill on the Donbas Front have not only defended ourselves and Russia, but the future of Humanity from those who would exterminate most of the world's population, and enslave the rest. And now, the denouement is upon us. One bright, cold day this April, the clocks will strike thirteen, and the decisive battle of this 9 year war will take place. That day may well turn out to be as portentous as October 24th, 1929 or September 1st, 1939.  Or May 9th, 1945. The UAF/NATO offensive is coming. We will soon see where it lands, and whether Russia will win or lose this war.

If Russia is prepared and under competent and serious military and political leadership, Russia can break the upcoming nazi offensive, the UAF will be finished, and NATO will withdraw, or at least have serious reservations about the advisability and ability to remain or invest further billions in a lost war. Russia can then advance to Kiev and take control of it, and all the territory east of that. This will achieve the stated goals of the SMO - the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, and the removal of all military threats to the Russian Federation and its People from Ukrainian soil. There are only two outcomes. Victory or Death.

 
Not just for Russia, but for Humanity itself. Who defends Donbas, defends Russia. Who defends Russia, defends the world. Davai!


ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Originally from Texas, Russell Bentley has been living in the Donetsk People’s Republic for eight years where he now has obtained official citizenship. He left the United States in late 2014 to join the DPR army to defend the breakaway republic from the NATO-backed Kiev regime. He said the suffering of innocent people at the hands of “NATO Nazis” compelled him to volunteer. Bentley has fought on the frontlines where he has seen many of his comrades-in-arms killed. He recently attended the funeral of one of them, Sergey Lysenko, a fighter and poet who was killed in the battle for Volnavaha on May 9, Victory Day. More recently, he has been broadcasting and working in communications to convey to the world what is really happening in the Donbas and Ukraine.

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