Click here for Exit the Cuckoo's Nest's posting standards and aims.
Click here to sign the People's Proclamation and send it to everyone you know.
EH here. This is a quite long but well developed opinion piece, taking into account many factors and worth the read imo. I got sick of trying to deal with problems transferring the article here so please read it at its source
Source: Black Mountain Analysis
Prospects for World War 3 – Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker
A strategic picture of the events of a collapsing Ukraine and the end of NATO
Introduction
Recently, there is a lot of talk about where the escalating spiral will end. Will it conclude in World War III? Will there be a nuclear war? What are the determining factors? And what would indicate World War III is imminent? I’ll go through these questions in detail from a strategic perspective.
But, before I do, I’d like to write another short dedication to an author and analyst, that I value very much. I’m talking about Andrei Raevsky, better known under his pseudonym “The Vineyard Saker”. I’ve read his blog regularly since 2015, and before that for years occasionally. I learned in this time a lot from him with regards to strategic and comprehensive thinking. This is what he does wonderfully. Unfortunately, but understandably, he decided to stop maintaining and writing his blog. Thank you, Andrei, for everything, for recommending my blog and for all the analysis I/we have been able to read for years and even decades. All the best for you and your family, going forwards.
So, will there be a third world war? I would say yes, with absolute certainty. But there are a few questions left that need to be clarified before we start to panic. I personally, currently, see no need for panic. Yet. But about which questions do I speak? About the following:
When will WW3 break out?
Under which circumstances?
Which alliances will participate?
Where will the main battlefield be?
Ultimately: Will the big three powers directly clash on a large scale against each other?
I don’t have answers to these questions. But you can see that these are strategic questions, not operational questions, such as those we are currently considering in Ukraine. I don’t think that the operational questions, whether 100 tanks will be supplied to Ukraine, or even 200 fighter jets, will decide anything about the likelihood of World War III.
What I hope to do here is to help readers develop their strategic thinking so that they can see past the short-sighted operational questions I mentioned before.
Preconditions
We at BMA developed a strategic and operational picture that is still valid. In fact, we can say that from my last operational update, there is nothing to add. I can go even further. I see now, step by step, all the major and well-known podcast analysts jumping on my train. All are now talking instead of big arrows, of methodical grinding on several theatres, to put as much pressure as needed on the Ukrainians so they can collapse. That’s perfectly fine for me.
For people, that haven’t read my analysis yet, I strongly recommend reading the following articles in this sequence:
No comments:
Post a Comment