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Israel now has its greatest opportunity in 50 years, to change the face of the Middle East. We must act now to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, its central energy facilities, and to fatally cripple this terrorist regime. We have the justification. We have the tools. Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are paralyzed, Iran stands exposed. Naftali Bennett, former Israeli Prime Minister
For Israel to achieve its regional ambitions, it must lure the US into a war with Iran. In order to accomplish that feat, Israel must strike Iran with enough force to provoke a violent and destructive retaliation. As soon as it looks like Israel is in trouble, the US will ride to the rescue with “guns blazing”. But, first, Israel must initiate a provocation big enough to ensure the outcome that it seeks. In short, Israel’s real target is the US because it is the US that must be hoodwinked into fighting Israel’s war. Regrettably, duping America is what Israel does best.
Americans are under the illusion that the United States will prevail in a war with Iran. But it’s not true. Iran has been preparing for a war with the US for over two decades, and they are ready-to-go. They have developed a missile technology that far exceeds anything currently available in the Pentagon’s arsenal and they are fully prepared to conduct a protracted asymmetrical war that will trigger a cataclysmic disruption of critical supply lines followed by the thundering crash of global markets. Bottom line: If the US attacks Iran, Washington is going to suffer a withering knockout blow that will end its dominance in the region and perhaps the world.
The top brass in the Pentagon know this as do many in the Intelligence community. They know that a war with Iran is a bridge too far and a fast-track to the dustbin of history. That is why Israel has delayed its retaliatory attack on Iran for so long, because Tel Aviv and the Pentagon are not on the same page. Even so, Netanyahu is charging ahead assuming—quite rightly—that the US will rescue Israel if its survival is seriously threatened by an Iranian missile attack. But, make no mistake, US generals and military leaders do not want this war, and that is why Israel’s attack on Iran has been delayed. It’s not merely a matter of selecting the appropriate targets (as the media would like you to believe); it’s a question of whether the United States is prepared to go to war with Iran and (potentially) its allies, Russia and China. (It’s worth noting that Russia’s Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visited Tehran just two days before Iran launched its ballistic missile attack on Israel. This suggests that Iran got the green light from Moscow to take action that meets the legal definition of “self defense.”)
Keep in mind, it’s been 9 days since Iran attacked Israel and inflicted severe damage on military bases and a gas platform off the coast of Gaza. Most analysts expected Israel to respond immediately which was what many of the Israeli leaders (including Netanyahu) had promised. But now, more than a week later, nothing has happened; and the reason nothing has happened is because there’s a split between the gung-ho Israeli-firsters at the State Department and the White House and the sober-minded realists at the Pentagon. (The Pentagon does not want a war with Iran.) And while the matter has not yet been settled, it looks like Bibi is about to pull-the-trigger with or without a formal declaration of US support. Once again, Netanyahu assumes that if Israel gets into trouble—as it undoubtedly will—Uncle Sam will join the fight.
The problem, of course, is that the United States cannot win a conventional war with Iran and, if it tries to do so, it’s going to see its military bases, airfields and a sizable number of its servicemen vanish in a pillar of black smoke. Check out this blurb from Scott Ritter who explains what lies ahead:
Let’s remember that when Trump was president, the Iranians shot down a Global Hawk Drone worth over $100 million dollars. ….which enraged Trump. And, he said we need to strike the air-defense sites that took down the Global Hawk. The Pentagon told him that if ‘we do this’ you are going to set into motion a cycle of escalation that will end with Iran destroying every single one of our (military) bases (in the region) and there’s nothing we can do to stop them. …as well as shutting down the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global oil supplies triggering a collapse of the global economy. And you are going to order us to invade Iran. But we can’t do that right now. ...It would take us months or years to assemble the forces needed to take the action you are talking about, and, even then, there is no guarantee of victory. “Are you sure you want to do this Mr. President”? And Trump said “No”.
That same calculus exists today. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have already been briefed on this reality. Donald Trump is already familiar with it. We cannot defeat Iran in a conventional fight. And here’s the gamechanger: The IRGC came out with a press release saying….”The Islamic faith allows things to change over time if a threat emerges against the Islamic Republic. And, if this threat does manifest itself, Iran will reconsider its stance on nuclear weapons. Iran is literally days away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon. If the US or Israel wants to play nuclear games, Iran is ready to play that game. And this changes everything because Israel can no longer say, “We can nuke you, but you can’t nuke us”. Iran has put all the pieces together, and it would be a matter of days before they have a functioning nuclear device capable of being mounted on a missile that cannot be shot down and that missile will be fired against Israel or American targets in the region.
This is a gamechanger. The days of the United States intimidating Iran are over, passed, finished. And the same with Israel. Israel can be wiped out tomorrow. Iran is prepared to fire 2,000 missiles at Israel in the span of a few hours. These missiles would destroy the entire infrastructure of Israel including every power plant, every water purification plant, everything that deals with modern civilized society will be eliminated because it can’t be defended and because Israel has nothing to fall back upon. They will literally bombed back to the Stone Age, and that’s without using nuclear weapons. Three to five nuclear weapons will wipe Israel off the face of the earth. There will be no Israel. That is the reality facing Israel today. That is the weakness that Benjamin Netanyahu has brought on the Israeli state and the Israeli people. Scott Ritter and Judge Napolitano: The Middle East One year after October 7th 2023, You Tube; 10:15 min
While Ritter does an excellent job of explaining the potential pitfalls of any conflagration with Iran, other analysts have focused on the basic geography of the battlefield and how it might impact the outcome of the war. Here’s an excerpt from an article that shows just how vulnerable US bases in the region really are.
Many US servicemembers in the Middle East are stationed at bases along the Persian Gulf in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the eastern part of Saudi Arabia. Examples include Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Naval Support Activity Bahrain, and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait.
Maintaining a forward military presence in the Persian Gulf is vital to securing American interests, but these bases are squarely within range of Iran’s increasingly formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. Making matters worse, Iran and its proxies have repeatedly demonstrated in recent years that they are able and willing to use all three of these types of weapons systems to target US and partner forces in the region.
Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the region, with at least eight types of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), all of which are capable of striking US bases along the Persian Gulf from Iranian territory. Ballistic missiles are particularly dangerous, as their high speed makes them more difficult to intercept compared to cruise missiles or drones (once detected). Most of Iran’s SRBMs employ solid propellants, meaning that they require less time to prep prior to launch and can be fueled and stored for longer periods of time….
But that is not enough. Congress should also press the Pentagon to replicate elsewhere vital military capabilities that currently reside solely or primarily at large, vulnerable bases on the Persian Gulf near Iran, especially at Al Udeid. Alternatives should include a number of smaller bases in the region beyond the range of some Iranian capabilities. Don’t over-concentrate US forces in the Middle East, FDD
Does it sound like the authors are advising US powerbrokers to “get outta Dodge pronto” to avoid an unprecedented catastrophe? Does it sound like US bases and personnel are over-exposed and likely to be obliterated by Iran’s state-of-the-art ballistic missiles? Does it sound like Bibi’s vengeful retaliation could cost American lives and compromise American interests?
In our last article, we focused on many of the same points we’re emphasizing here. At the risk of being redundant, we’ll include a brief clip from an earlier piece that illustrates the risks to American bases in the region:
“These (US) aircraft are largely based at locations along the southern coast of the Arabian Gulf…an artifact of planning against Russian incursions in the 1970s, and the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns of the early decades of this century. They are close to Iran, which means they have a short trip to the fight…but that is also their great vulnerability. They are so close to Iran that it takes but five minutes or less for missiles launched from Iran to reach their bases.”…
Most damagingly of all:
“These bases are all defended by Patriot and other defensive systems. Unfortunately, at such close range to Iran, the ability of the attacker to mass fires [sic] and overwhelm the defense is very real.”…
In closing his roadmap to Tehran’s victory, McKenzie bitterly laments, “it is hard to escape the conclusion that our current basing structure is poorly postured for the most likely fight that will emerge.” The Empire “will not be able to maintain these bases in a full-throated conflict, because they will be rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack.” Imperial overreach in West Asia has now fallen victim to “the simple tyranny of geography.”….
“The Iranians can see this problem just as clearly as we do, and that is one of the reasons why they have created their large and highly capable missile and drone force.”..
The question of whether the battlefield primacy of the Resistance in West Asia will finally be comprehended by their adversaries, in light of October 1st, remains an open one. As Russian military strategist Igor Korotchenko once observed, “this Anglo-Saxon breed understands nothing but force.” Collapsing Empire: Iran Throws Down Gauntlet, Kit Klarenberg, Global Delinquents
The Biden team needs to think long-and-hard about the move they are about to make. When an expert tells you that “our current basing structure is poorly postured for the…. fight that will emerge.” What he means is that your bases, your people, and your weapons systems cannot be protected and, therefore, they’re doomed. And when that same expert tells you that you “will not be able to maintain these bases in a… conflict, because they will be rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack.” What he means is that your enemy is going blow your entire operation to smithereens.
Wouldn’t it be wiser to mull these matters over instead of recklessly issuing another blank check to a genocidal madman who is merely using the US to advance his own ethno-lunatic agenda?
Of course, some will argue that if push-comes-to-shove, the US can always draw from its nuclear arsenal and turn Tehran into a parking lot. This is true, but it is also true that Iran has placed its hypersonic ballistic missiles in locations around the country which means that—if Iran is destined to become a parking lot—then Israel will meet the same exact fate.
In fact, some would call that “poetic justice.”
BREAKING: Iranian parliament is reportedly drafting a bill to create an official military alliance between all parties of the resistance axis which includes Iran, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Hezbollah, and Hamas. The bill mentions the creation of a joint operation room and a unified military infrastructure, as well as joint military exercises and an obligation to send military and humanitarian aid in case of any act of aggression by the US or Israel against any one of the parties —Tasnim.
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